The New Saints vs Briton Ferry
Match result probability Model pick: The New Saints win
The New Saints winPick
60.3%
Draw
23.3%
Briton Ferry win
16.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.9%
No45.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.6%
Under 2.537.4%
How much we know
The New Saints history68 matches
Briton Ferry history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours The New Saints
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why The New Saints are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The New Saints are rated 175 Elo points higher
Elo 1,704 against 1,529. On rating alone The New Saints would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.
-
The New Saints score far more
2.29 goals a game over 68 matches for The New Saints, against 1.39 over 54 for Briton Ferry.
-
The New Saints concede fewer
The New Saints concede 0.75 a game, Briton Ferry 1.56.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of The New Saints matches, against 57% for Briton Ferry. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Briton Ferry@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1704.4
ELO
1529.3
68
ELO · Matches
54
1704.4
Current Team ELO
1529.3
1529.3
Current Opponent ELO
1704.4
175.1
Current ELO Difference
-175.1
0.73
Expected score
0.27
68
History Matches
54
0.14
Residual Mean
0.03
61.19
Overperformance
51.87
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.00
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
68
Matches
54
2.26
PPG
1.30
72.1%
Win rate
35.2%
10.3%
Draw rate
24.1%
17.6%
Loss rate
40.7%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
28
2.39
PPG
1.43
78.8%
Win rate
39.3%
3.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
35.7%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.29
Goals for per game
1.39
83.8%
Scoring rate
74.1%
41.2%
BTTS rate
53.7%
2.61
Goals for per game
1.50
84.8%
Scoring rate
78.6%
39.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
54
2.29
Goals Mean
1.39
1.77
Goals Std
1.21
83.8%
Scored 1+ rate
74.1%
64.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
35.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
2.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
1.56
52.9%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.46
51.5%
Conceding rate
67.9%
68
History Matches
54
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.56
0.85
Conceded Std
1.38
17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.3%
4.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
48.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
48.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
68
History Matches
54
0.71
Result entropy
0.98
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.94
29.34
Stability score
2.04
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
68
Eligible Matches
53
34
Lead Matches
16
97.1%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.69
8
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.34
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
39
Normal Rest History Matches
27
2.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
13
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.60
Portability PPG Range
0.75
70.07
Portability Score
65.77
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
68
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO175.1
PPG0.97
GF0.91
GA-0.81
PPG0.97
PPG1.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate21.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.91
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate9.7%
Scored 2+ rate22.1%
Scored 3+ rate20.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.81
Conceded Std-0.54
Clean-sheet rate21.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.29
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.27
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score27.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate34.6%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count6
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score4.30
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.63
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.22
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO175.1
Current Opponent ELO-175.1
Current ELO Difference350.1
Expected score0.47
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance9.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
The New Saints
W
Llandudno0–1The New Saints6 Nov · away
Pick: The New Saints 41% · hit D
The New Saints0–0GAP Connah S Quay FC31 Oct · home
Pick: The New Saints 53% · missed W
The New Saints9–0Ammanford AFC23 Oct · home
Pick: The New Saints 76% · hit W
Airbus UK1–2The New Saints16 Oct · away
Pick: The New Saints 53% · hit W
Caernarfon Town2–3The New Saints31 Aug · away
Pick: The New Saints 46% · hit Briton Ferry
L
Ammanford AFC3–1Briton Ferry6 Nov · away
Pick: Briton Ferry 42% · missed W
Briton Ferry3–0Llandudno30 Oct · home
Pick: Llandudno 57% · missed L
Caernarfon Town3–1Briton Ferry23 Oct · away
Pick: Caernarfon Town 61% · hit W
Briton Ferry5–0Afan United16 Oct · home
Pick: Briton Ferry 80% · hit L
Briton Ferry1–4Barry Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Barry Town 42% · hit About this match
The New Saints and Briton Ferry meet in Welsh Cup on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Park Hall, Oswestry. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: The New Saints win 60.3%, draw 23.3%, Briton Ferry win 16.5%. The pick is The New Saints win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.6%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.