ScoreProb
U21 Divisie 1 Netherlands Fall Season - 10 2026

Cambuur U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21

Cambuur U21 Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
PEC Zwolle U21 Away · Elo 1,486
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cambuur U21 win
Cambuur U21 winPick
58.6%
Draw
17.2%
PEC Zwolle U21 win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.9%
No34.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.3%
Under 2.526.7%

How much we know

Cambuur U21 history39 matches
PEC Zwolle U21 history26 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Cambuur U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cambuur U21 are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,486. On rating alone Cambuur U21 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Cambuur U21 score more

    2.28 goals a game over 39 matches for Cambuur U21, against 1.81 over 26 for PEC Zwolle U21.

  • Cambuur U21 concede fewer

    Cambuur U21 concede 1.72 a game, PEC Zwolle U21 2.08.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    79% of Cambuur U21 matches, against 77% for PEC Zwolle U21. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cambuur U21
PEC Zwolle U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.8
ELO
1485.9
39
ELO · Matches
26
1522.8
Current Team ELO
1485.9
1485.9
Current Opponent ELO
1522.8
36.94
Current ELO Difference
-36.94
0.55
Expected score
0.45
39
History Matches
26
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
51.96
Overperformance
48.93
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
2.80
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
2.60
Goals for per game
2.10
2.50
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
26
1.74
PPG
1.27
56.4%
Win rate
38.5%
5.1%
Draw rate
11.5%
38.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
79.5%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
59.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
12
2.25
PPG
0.83
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
8.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
85.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
20
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.28
Goals for per game
1.81
92.3%
Scoring rate
61.5%
64.1%
BTTS rate
57.7%
2.65
Goals for per game
0.83
90.0%
Scoring rate
58.3%
55.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
39
History Matches
26
2.28
Goals Mean
1.81
1.45
Goals Std
1.98
92.3%
Scored 1+ rate
61.5%
59.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
46.2%
Scored 3+ rate
34.6%
2.65
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.72
Goals against per game
2.08
71.8%
Conceding rate
92.3%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.83
65.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
39
History Matches
26
1.72
Conceded Mean
2.08
1.54
Conceded Std
1.24
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.5%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.6%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
26
0.77
Result entropy
0.88
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.33
23.29
Stability score
12.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
9
9
Lead Matches
3
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
5
14.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
1.10
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.56
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
161.2
Rest days
329.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
21
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.85
Portability PPG Range
0.43
54.17
Portability Score
70.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
26
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO36.94
PPG0.47
GF0.47
GA-0.36
PPG1.42
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate18.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate30.8%
Scored 2+ rate20.5%
Scored 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.85
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate20.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score10.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-15.83
Rest days-168.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.82
Current Team ELO36.94
Current Opponent ELO-36.94
Current ELO Difference73.88
Expected score0.11
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cambuur U21

No earlier results with our pick yet

PEC Zwolle U21

W
Twente / Heracles U210–1PEC Zwolle U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Twente / Heracles U21 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cambuur U21 and PEC Zwolle U21 meet in U21 Divisie 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cambuur U21 win 58.6%, draw 17.2%, PEC Zwolle U21 win 24.1%. The pick is Cambuur U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.3%. Both teams to score: 65.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.