ScoreProb
U21 Divisie 1 Netherlands Fall Season - 10 2026

Feyenoord U21 vs Groningen U21

Feyenoord U21 Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Groningen U21 Away · Elo 1,549
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Groningen U21 win
Feyenoord U21 win
33.9%
Draw
25.4%
Groningen U21 winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.0%
No36.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%

How much we know

Feyenoord U21 history41 matches
Groningen U21 history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Groningen U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Groningen U21 are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,514. On rating alone Groningen U21 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.93 goals a game over 41 matches for Feyenoord U21, against 1.89 over 44 for Groningen U21.

  • Defences are close

    Feyenoord U21 concede 1.73 a game, Groningen U21 1.57.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Feyenoord U21 matches, against 68% for Groningen U21. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Feyenoord U21
Groningen U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.1
ELO
1549.1
41
ELO · Matches
44
1514.1
Current Team ELO
1549.1
1549.1
Current Opponent ELO
1514.1
-34.96
Current ELO Difference
34.96
0.45
Expected score
0.55
41
History Matches
44
0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
50.70
Overperformance
53.74
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
2.40
Goals for per game
2.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
44
1.49
PPG
1.70
46.3%
Win rate
52.3%
9.8%
Draw rate
13.6%
43.9%
Loss rate
34.1%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.1%
70.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
53.7%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
22
1.63
PPG
1.77
52.6%
Win rate
54.5%
5.3%
Draw rate
13.6%
42.1%
Loss rate
31.8%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
78.9%
Over 2.5 rate
77.3%
63.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
19
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.93
Goals for per game
1.89
85.4%
Scoring rate
84.1%
58.5%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.11
Goals for per game
2.27
89.5%
Scoring rate
86.4%
57.9%
BTTS rate
63.6%
41
History Matches
44
1.93
Goals Mean
1.89
1.35
Goals Std
1.37
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
56.1%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
31.7%
Scored 3+ rate
31.8%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
2.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.73
Goals against per game
1.57
73.2%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.84
Goals against per game
1.77
68.4%
Conceding rate
77.3%
41
History Matches
44
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.58
Conceded Std
1.40
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
34.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.84
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
44
0.86
Result entropy
0.89
2.37
Goal Difference Std
2.04
13.99
Stability score
11.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
27
Eligible Matches
26
11
Lead Matches
10
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.73
9
Trailing Matches
4
22.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
27
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.42
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
160.9
Rest days
149.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
13
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.06
Portability PPG Range
0.66
94.48
Portability Score
60.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-34.96
PPG-0.22
GF0.04
GA0.16
PPG-0.14
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate1.6%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate13.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score2.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate20.9%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score34.16
Rest days11.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-34.96
Current Opponent ELO34.96
Current ELO Difference-69.92
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Feyenoord U21

No earlier results with our pick yet

Groningen U21

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Feyenoord U21 and Groningen U21 meet in U21 Divisie 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Feyenoord U21 win 33.9%, draw 25.4%, Groningen U21 win 40.6%. The pick is Groningen U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.1%. Both teams to score: 64.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.