Twente / Heracles U21 vs Willem II U21
Match result probability Model pick: Twente / Heracles U21 win
Twente / Heracles U21 winPick
54.7%
Draw
19.8%
Willem II U21 win
25.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes70.6%
No29.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.575.0%
Under 2.525.0%
How much we know
Twente / Heracles U21 history37 matches
Willem II U21 history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Twente / Heracles U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 11:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Twente / Heracles U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,550 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.32 goals a game over 37 matches for Twente / Heracles U21, against 2.13 over 15 for Willem II U21.
-
Willem II U21 concede fewer
Twente / Heracles U21 concede 1.97 a game, Willem II U21 1.67.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
78% of Twente / Heracles U21 matches, against 73% for Willem II U21. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Willem II U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1549.5
ELO
1531.0
37
ELO · Matches
15
1549.5
Current Team ELO
1531.0
1531.0
Current Opponent ELO
1549.5
18.54
Current ELO Difference
-18.54
0.53
Expected score
0.47
37
History Matches
15
0.06
Residual Mean
0.10
54.11
Overperformance
54.20
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
3.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.70
3.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.90
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
2.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals 90
37
Matches
15
1.73
PPG
1.73
54.1%
Win rate
53.3%
10.8%
Draw rate
13.3%
35.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
78.4%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
62.2%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
8
1.72
PPG
1.13
55.6%
Win rate
37.5%
5.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
38.9%
Loss rate
62.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
18
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.32
Goals for per game
2.13
81.1%
Scoring rate
86.7%
70.3%
BTTS rate
73.3%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.75
77.8%
Scoring rate
75.0%
72.2%
BTTS rate
62.5%
37
History Matches
15
2.32
Goals Mean
2.13
1.88
Goals Std
1.31
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
64.9%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
37.8%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.97
Goals against per game
1.67
89.2%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.89
Goals against per game
1.75
94.4%
Conceding rate
87.5%
37
History Matches
15
1.97
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.44
Conceded Std
1.30
51.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
29.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
5.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
37
History Matches
15
0.86
Result entropy
0.88
2.59
Goal Difference Std
1.82
14.39
Stability score
11.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
18
Eligible Matches
5
8
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.44
4
Trailing Matches
0
25.0%
Non-loss rate
—
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
1.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
1.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.60
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.20
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
160.9
Rest days
160.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.03
Portability PPG Std
—
0.06
Portability PPG Range
—
94.26
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
37
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.54
PPG0.00
GF0.19
GA0.31
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches22
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.93
History Matches22
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches22
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.77
Stability score2.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate66.7%
Lead Points Retention0.56
Trailing Matches4
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO18.54
Current Opponent ELO-18.54
Current ELO Difference37.08
Expected score0.05
History Matches22
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Twente / Heracles U21
L
Twente / Heracles U210–1PEC Zwolle U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Twente / Heracles U21 56% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Willem II U21
No earlier results with our pick yet
About this match
Twente / Heracles U21 and Willem II U21 meet in U21 Divisie 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Twente / Heracles U21 win 54.7%, draw 19.8%, Willem II U21 win 25.4%. The pick is Twente / Heracles U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 75.0%. Both teams to score: 70.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.