Go Ahead Eagles U21 vs De Graafschap U21
Match result probability Model pick: De Graafschap U21 win
Go Ahead Eagles U21 win
36.4%
Draw
18.8%
De Graafschap U21 winPick
44.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.9%
No40.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%
How much we know
Go Ahead Eagles U21 history26 matches
De Graafschap U21 history26 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours De Graafschap U21
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 14:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why De Graafschap U21 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
De Graafschap U21 are rated 103 Elo points higher
Elo 1,558 against 1,455. On rating alone De Graafschap U21 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
De Graafschap U21 score more
1.46 goals a game over 26 matches for Go Ahead Eagles U21, against 1.77 over 26 for De Graafschap U21.
-
De Graafschap U21 concede fewer
Go Ahead Eagles U21 concede 1.81 a game, De Graafschap U21 1.38.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Go Ahead Eagles U21 matches, against 58% for De Graafschap U21. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 4 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
De Graafschap U21@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1455.2
ELO
1558.1
26
ELO · Matches
26
1455.2
Current Team ELO
1558.1
1558.1
Current Opponent ELO
1455.2
-102.8
Current ELO Difference
102.8
0.36
Expected score
0.64
26
History Matches
26
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.10
45.54
Overperformance
55.90
-0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.40
0.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
2.10
2.30
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.54
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals 90
26
Matches
26
1.23
PPG
1.69
38.5%
Win rate
50.0%
7.7%
Draw rate
19.2%
53.8%
Loss rate
30.8%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
14
Matches
14
1.36
PPG
1.36
42.9%
Win rate
35.7%
7.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
35.7%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
14
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.46
Goals for per game
1.77
73.1%
Scoring rate
92.3%
57.7%
BTTS rate
65.4%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.36
57.1%
Scoring rate
92.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
78.6%
26
History Matches
26
1.46
Goals Mean
1.77
1.47
Goals Std
1.09
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
92.3%
34.6%
Scored 2+ rate
57.7%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.81
Goals against per game
1.38
80.8%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.64
85.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
26
History Matches
26
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.41
Conceded Std
1.18
53.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
26
History Matches
26
0.82
Result entropy
0.93
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.73
18.25
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
8
Eligible Matches
13
1
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
5
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.23
1.25
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.31
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.23
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
329.0
Rest days
156.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.90
13
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.45
Portability PPG Std
—
0.89
Portability PPG Range
—
52.83
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
26
Clean History Matches
26
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-102.8
PPG-0.46
GF-0.31
GA0.42
PPG0.00
PPG-2.40
PPG-1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate19.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate35.7%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score11.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days172.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.68
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.21
Current Team ELO-102.8
Current Opponent ELO102.8
Current ELO Difference-205.6
Expected score-0.29
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-10.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.59
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Go Ahead Eagles U21
No earlier results with our pick yet
De Graafschap U21
No earlier results with our pick yet
About this match
Go Ahead Eagles U21 and De Graafschap U21 meet in U21 Divisie 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Go Ahead Eagles U21 win 36.4%, draw 18.8%, De Graafschap U21 win 44.8%. The pick is De Graafschap U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.