ScoreProb
Primera División Venezuela Round 5 2026

Caracas FC vs Puerto Cabello

Caracas FC Home · Elo 1,489
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Puerto Cabello Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Puerto Cabello win
Caracas FC win
35.1%
Draw
29.2%
Puerto Cabello winPick
35.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.0%
Under 2.552.0%

How much we know

Caracas FC history56 matches
Puerto Cabello history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Puerto Cabello are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,489 against 1,510. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 56 matches for Caracas FC, against 1.10 over 61 for Puerto Cabello.

  • Puerto Cabello concede fewer

    Caracas FC concede 1.39 a game, Puerto Cabello 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Caracas FC matches, against 44% for Puerto Cabello. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Caracas FC
Puerto Cabello@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.7
ELO
1510.5
56
ELO · Matches
61
1488.7
Current Team ELO
1510.5
1510.5
Current Opponent ELO
1488.7
-21.76
Current ELO Difference
21.76
0.47
Expected score
0.53
56
History Matches
61
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
49.07
Overperformance
50.62
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.70
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
1.90
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
61
1.21
PPG
1.25
28.6%
Win rate
31.1%
35.7%
Draw rate
31.1%
35.7%
Loss rate
37.7%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.3%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
31
1.19
PPG
0.87
25.9%
Win rate
19.4%
40.7%
Draw rate
29.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
51.6%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
58.1%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
29.0%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
9.7%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
27
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.10
73.2%
Scoring rate
68.9%
58.9%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.68
74.1%
Scoring rate
51.6%
59.3%
BTTS rate
35.5%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.29
83.3%
Scoring rate
90.5%
75.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
56
History Matches
61
1.18
Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Goals Std
0.99
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.5%
10.7%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
0.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.18
78.6%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.19
74.1%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.19
91.7%
Conceding rate
81.0%
56
History Matches
61
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.11
Conceded Std
0.97
39.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
48.4%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
48.4%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
61
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.39
0.48
Stability score
0.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
61
15
Lead Matches
19
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
63.2%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.74
20
Trailing Matches
16
40.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
28
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
12
Matches
21
0.92
PPG
1.43
16.7%
Win rate
38.1%
41.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
41.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
0.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
12
Current Competition Matches
21
0.92
Current Competition PPG
1.43
-0.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.10
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.60
66.87
Portability Score
69.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-21.76
PPG-0.03
GF0.08
GA0.21
PPG-0.51
PPG0.31
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate2.6%
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate6.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.24
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score0.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate10.2%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate21.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches-9
Current Competition PPG-0.51
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.51
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-2.93
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-21.76
Current Opponent ELO21.76
Current ELO Difference-43.52
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Caracas FC

W
Monagas SC0–2Caracas FC3 Nov · away
Pick: Caracas FC 37% · hit
L
Caracas FC2–3Monagas SC31 Oct · home
Pick: Caracas FC 48% · missed
W
Puerto Cabello0–1Caracas FC27 Oct · away
Pick: Puerto Cabello 51% · missed
L
Caracas FC1–2Deportivo Tachira FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Tachira FC 40% · hit
D
Deportivo Tachira FC0–0Caracas FC30 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo Tachira FC 55% · missed

Puerto Cabello

L
Deportivo Tachira FC3–2Puerto Cabello3 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo Tachira FC 54% · hit
L
Puerto Cabello0–1Deportivo Tachira FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Puerto Cabello 35% · missed
L
Puerto Cabello0–1Caracas FC27 Oct · home
Pick: Puerto Cabello 51% · missed
W
Monagas SC1–2Puerto Cabello24 Oct · away
Pick: Monagas SC 41% · missed
W
Puerto Cabello3–1Rayo Zuliano21 Oct · home
Pick: Puerto Cabello 57% · hit

About this match

Caracas FC and Puerto Cabello meet in Primera División on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Caracas FC win 35.1%, draw 29.2%, Puerto Cabello win 35.7%. The pick is Puerto Cabello win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.0%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.