ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 16 2026

Carina Gubin vs Rakow II

Carina Gubin Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rakow II Away · Elo 1,465
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Carina Gubin win
Carina Gubin winPick
64.7%
Draw
16.5%
Rakow II win
18.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.9%
Under 2.530.1%

How much we know

Carina Gubin history63 matches
Rakow II history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Carina Gubin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Carina Gubin are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,465. On rating alone Carina Gubin would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.46 goals a game over 63 matches for Carina Gubin, against 1.57 over 7 for Rakow II.

  • Carina Gubin concede fewer

    Carina Gubin concede 1.52 a game, Rakow II 2.71.

  • Rakow II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Carina Gubin matches, against 86% for Rakow II. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carina Gubin
Rakow II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.2
ELO
1465.0
63
ELO · Matches
7
1505.2
Current Team ELO
1465.0
1465.0
Current Opponent ELO
1505.2
40.26
Current ELO Difference
-40.26
0.56
Expected score
0.44
63
History Matches
7
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.26
49.30
Overperformance
43.20
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
7
1.20
PPG
0.57
1.20
Goals for per game
1.57
1.70
Goals against per game
2.71
30.0%
Win rate
14.3%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.57
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.71
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.39
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.72
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
7
1.37
PPG
0.57
34.9%
Win rate
14.3%
31.7%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
71.4%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
60.3%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
4
1.41
PPG
0.25
37.0%
Win rate
0.0%
29.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
75.0%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
27
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.57
82.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
65.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.75
85.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
63.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
63
History Matches
7
1.46
Goals Mean
1.57
1.08
Goals Std
1.40
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
41.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
2.71
76.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.26
Goals against per game
3.25
70.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.40
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
7
1.52
Conceded Mean
2.71
1.38
Conceded Std
1.39
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
71.4%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
57.1%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
3.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
7
1.00
Result entropy
0.72
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.64
0.07
Stability score
27.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
7
18
Lead Matches
1
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
1.00
14
Trailing Matches
4
28.6%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.60
5
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.83
Portability PPG Range
—
62.53
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO40.26
PPG0.79
GF-0.11
GA-1.19
PPG0.60
PPG1.16
PPG0.60
PPG0.63
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches56
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate29.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches56
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches56
Conceded Mean-1.19
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Conceded Mean-1.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.01
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches56
Result entropy0.27
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-27.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches55
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate-0.39
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate3.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches55
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.84
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches30
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.36
Long Rest History Matches22
Long Rest Points Per Match1.03
Current Team ELO40.26
Current Opponent ELO-40.26
Current ELO Difference80.52
Expected score0.12
History Matches56
Residual Mean0.25
Overperformance6.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carina Gubin

D
Polonia Nysa0–0Carina Gubin31 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Nysa 43% · missed
L
Carina Gubin1–3Sparta Katowice24 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Katowice 45% · hit
W
Ślęza Wrocław1–3Carina Gubin17 Oct · away
Pick: Ślęza Wrocław 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rakow II

L
Rakow II1–3ROW Rybnik30 Oct · home
Pick: ROW Rybnik 55% · hit
L
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra3–1Rakow II24 Oct · away
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 75% · hit
W
Rakow II3–2Warta Gorzów17 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Gorzów 54% · missed
L
Zaglebie Sosnowiec1–0Rakow II14 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 70% · hit
D
Rakow II0–0Goczałkowice Zdrój29 Aug · home
Pick: Goczałkowice Zdrój 40% · missed

About this match

Carina Gubin and Rakow II meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Carina Gubin win 64.7%, draw 16.5%, Rakow II win 18.7%. The pick is Carina Gubin win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.9%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.