ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 16 2026

Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Ślęza Wrocław

Odra Bytom Odrzański Home · Elo 1,473
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ślęza Wrocław Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Odra Bytom Odrzański win
Odra Bytom Odrzański winPick
53.7%
Draw
23.5%
Ślęza Wrocław win
22.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.9%
Under 2.535.1%

How much we know

Odra Bytom Odrzański history23 matches
Ślęza Wrocław history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Odra Bytom Odrzański are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ślęza Wrocław are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,504 against 1,473. On rating alone Ślęza Wrocław would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Ślęza Wrocław score more

    1.09 goals a game over 23 matches for Odra Bytom Odrzański, against 1.44 over 64 for Ślęza Wrocław.

  • Ślęza Wrocław concede fewer

    Odra Bytom Odrzański concede 2.04 a game, Ślęza Wrocław 1.78.

  • Ślęza Wrocław games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Odra Bytom Odrzański matches, against 63% for Ślęza Wrocław. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Ślęza Wrocław
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1473.4
ELO
1503.7
23
ELO · Matches
64
1473.4
Current Team ELO
1503.7
1503.7
Current Opponent ELO
1473.4
-30.31
Current ELO Difference
30.31
0.46
Expected score
0.54
23
History Matches
64
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.57
Overperformance
49.43
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
2.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.99
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
64
1.09
PPG
1.27
30.4%
Win rate
34.4%
17.4%
Draw rate
23.4%
52.2%
Loss rate
42.2%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
2.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
36
1.00
PPG
1.06
26.7%
Win rate
27.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
53.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.2%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
15
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.44
65.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
43.5%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.44
60.0%
Scoring rate
86.1%
46.7%
BTTS rate
72.2%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
23
History Matches
64
1.09
Goals Mean
1.44
1.21
Goals Std
1.37
65.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
21.7%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.04
Goals against per game
1.78
78.3%
Conceding rate
76.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.17
86.7%
Conceding rate
86.1%
0.20
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
23
History Matches
64
2.04
Conceded Mean
1.78
2.05
Conceded Std
1.55
43.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
30.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.6%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
80.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
64
0.92
Result entropy
0.98
2.66
Goal Difference Std
2.18
8.46
Stability score
2.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
62
4
Lead Matches
18
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.89
9
Trailing Matches
17
0.0%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
77.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
10
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
11
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.80
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.87
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.73
Portability PPG Range
0.84
36.59
Portability Score
60.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-30.31
PPG-0.18
GF-0.35
GA0.26
PPG1.80
PPG-0.06
PPG1.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-41
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate26.1%
History Matches-41
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-41
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.33
History Matches-41
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score5.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.60
Eligible Matches-39
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-39
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.55
Portability PPG Range0.89
Portability Score-24.35
Rest days-0.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.40
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-30.31
Current Opponent ELO30.31
Current ELO Difference-60.61
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-41
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Odra Bytom Odrzański

L
Goczałkowice Zdrój3–0Odra Bytom Odrzański31 Oct · away
Pick: Goczałkowice Zdrój 44% · hit
W
Odra Bytom Odrzański3–2Stal Brzeg24 Oct · home
Pick: Odra Bytom Odrzański 37% · hit
D
Stilon Gorzów0–0Odra Bytom Odrzański17 Oct · away
Pick: Stilon Gorzów 44% · missed
D
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra0–0Odra Bytom Odrzański29 Aug · away
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ślęza Wrocław

D
Ślęza Wrocław2–2Górnik Polkowice30 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Polkowice 51% · missed
W
Barycz Sułów1–2Ślęza Wrocław24 Oct · away
Pick: Barycz Sułów 55% · missed
L
Ślęza Wrocław1–3Carina Gubin17 Oct · home
Pick: Ślęza Wrocław 41% · missed
W
Polonia Nysa1–3Ślęza Wrocław29 Aug · away
Pick: Polonia Nysa 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański and Ślęza Wrocław meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Odra Bytom Odrzański win 53.7%, draw 23.5%, Ślęza Wrocław win 22.8%. The pick is Odra Bytom Odrzański win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.9%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.