ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 16 2026

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra vs Miedź Legnica II

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Miedź Legnica II Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra winPick
55.2%
Draw
17.9%
Miedź Legnica II win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.8%
Under 2.535.2%

How much we know

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra history62 matches
Miedź Legnica II history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Karkonosze Jelenia Góra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,517 against 1,540. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Miedź Legnica II score more

    1.45 goals a game over 62 matches for Karkonosze Jelenia Góra, against 2.07 over 61 for Miedź Legnica II.

  • Karkonosze Jelenia Góra concede fewer

    Karkonosze Jelenia Góra concede 1.45 a game, Miedź Legnica II 1.67.

  • Miedź Legnica II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Karkonosze Jelenia Góra matches, against 75% for Miedź Legnica II. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Miedź Legnica II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.2
ELO
1540.3
62
ELO · Matches
61
1517.2
Current Team ELO
1540.3
1540.3
Current Opponent ELO
1517.2
-23.02
Current ELO Difference
23.02
0.47
Expected score
0.53
62
History Matches
61
0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
50.94
Overperformance
52.34
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
61
1.31
PPG
1.54
35.5%
Win rate
45.9%
24.2%
Draw rate
16.4%
40.3%
Loss rate
37.7%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.9%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
75.4%
40.3%
Over 3.5 rate
54.1%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.67
PPG
1.35
46.7%
Win rate
38.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
19.4%
26.7%
Loss rate
41.9%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
51.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
2.07
75.8%
Scoring rate
86.9%
56.5%
BTTS rate
70.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.61
83.3%
Scoring rate
83.9%
53.3%
BTTS rate
71.0%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
62
History Matches
61
1.45
Goals Mean
2.07
1.30
Goals Std
1.64
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.9%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
59.0%
21.0%
Scored 3+ rate
27.9%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.67
74.2%
Conceding rate
82.0%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.74
60.0%
Conceding rate
83.9%
0.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
61
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.28
Conceded Std
1.24
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.5%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.5%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.1%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
61
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
1.87
Goal Difference Std
2.16
1.95
Stability score
7.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
59
21
Lead Matches
20
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.87
19
Trailing Matches
18
31.6%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
33
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.40
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.20
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.90
0.53
Portability PPG Range
2.37
69.50
Portability Score
35.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.02
PPG-0.23
GF-0.61
GA-0.22
PPG1.40
PPG0.31
PPG1.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate23.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-5.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.92
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.8%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.68
Portability PPG Range-1.84
Portability Score33.89
Rest days-1.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-23.02
Current Opponent ELO23.02
Current ELO Difference-46.04
Expected score-0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

D
Kluczbork2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra30 Oct · away
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 40% · missed
W
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra3–1Rakow II24 Oct · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 75% · hit
D
Polonia Nysa2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra16 Oct · away
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 57% · missed
D
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra0–0Odra Bytom Odrzański29 Aug · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Miedź Legnica II

W
Miedź Legnica II6–0Warta Gorzów30 Oct · home
Pick: Miedź Legnica II 45% · hit
L
Zaglebie Sosnowiec3–1Miedź Legnica II23 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 59% · hit
L
Kluczbork2–0Miedź Legnica II17 Oct · away
Pick: Kluczbork 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra and Miedź Legnica II meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win 55.2%, draw 17.9%, Miedź Legnica II win 26.9%. The pick is Karkonosze Jelenia Góra win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.8%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.