ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 16 2026

Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice

Górnik Polkowice Home · Elo 1,584
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sparta Katowice Away · Elo 1,588
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Górnik Polkowice win
Górnik Polkowice winPick
49.0%
Draw
21.7%
Sparta Katowice win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.7%
No42.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Górnik Polkowice history70 matches
Sparta Katowice history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Górnik Polkowice are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,584 against 1,588. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.84 goals a game over 70 matches for Górnik Polkowice, against 1.81 over 43 for Sparta Katowice.

  • Sparta Katowice concede fewer

    Górnik Polkowice concede 1.30 a game, Sparta Katowice 1.05.

  • Górnik Polkowice games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Górnik Polkowice matches, against 49% for Sparta Katowice. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Górnik Polkowice
Sparta Katowice
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1583.9
ELO
1588.3
70
ELO · Matches
43
1583.9
Current Team ELO
1588.3
1588.3
Current Opponent ELO
1583.9
-4.40
Current ELO Difference
4.40
0.49
Expected score
0.51
70
History Matches
43
0.06
Residual Mean
0.10
54.86
Overperformance
57.13
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
1.90
Goals for per game
2.40
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
43
1.86
PPG
1.84
55.7%
Win rate
53.5%
18.6%
Draw rate
23.3%
25.7%
Loss rate
23.3%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.4%
61.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
21
2.08
PPG
1.62
62.2%
Win rate
47.6%
21.6%
Draw rate
19.0%
16.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
45.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
37
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.81
81.4%
Scoring rate
79.1%
52.9%
BTTS rate
51.2%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.52
89.2%
Scoring rate
71.4%
56.8%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
70
History Matches
43
1.84
Goals Mean
1.81
1.45
Goals Std
1.70
81.4%
Scored 1+ rate
79.1%
55.7%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
27.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.9%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.05
65.7%
Conceding rate
65.1%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.00
64.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
70
History Matches
43
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.31
Conceded Std
0.99
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
43
0.90
Result entropy
0.92
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.75
10.09
Stability score
7.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
41
27
Lead Matches
14
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
12
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
39
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
25
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
6
Competition Season Count
3
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.42
66.66
Portability Score
74.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-4.40
PPG0.02
GF0.03
GA0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG0.46
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches27
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate2.4%
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches27
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches27
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score2.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate10.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate4.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-7.83
Rest days-1.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-4.40
Current Opponent ELO4.40
Current ELO Difference-8.80
Expected score-0.01
History Matches27
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Górnik Polkowice

D
Ślęza Wrocław2–2Górnik Polkowice30 Oct · away
Pick: Górnik Polkowice 51% · missed
W
Górnik Polkowice4–1Goczałkowice Zdrój24 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Polkowice 59% · hit
L
Stal Brzeg2–0Górnik Polkowice17 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Brzeg 42% · hit
W
ROW Rybnik1–3Górnik Polkowice29 Aug · away
Pick: ROW Rybnik 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sparta Katowice

W
Sparta Katowice3–1Barycz Sułów31 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Katowice 53% · hit
W
Carina Gubin1–3Sparta Katowice24 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Katowice 45% · hit
W
Sparta Katowice2–0ROW Rybnik17 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Katowice 61% · hit
W
Sparta Katowice1–0Zaglebie Sosnowiec29 Aug · home
Pick: Sparta Katowice 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Górnik Polkowice and Sparta Katowice meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Górnik Polkowice win 49.0%, draw 21.7%, Sparta Katowice win 29.3%. The pick is Górnik Polkowice win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.2%. Both teams to score: 57.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.