Casa de Portugal vs Esperança d'Andorra
Match result probability Model pick: Esperança d'Andorra win
Casa de Portugal win
32.0%
Draw
24.7%
Esperança d'Andorra winPick
43.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.0%
No46.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%
How much we know
Casa de Portugal history2 matches
Esperança d'Andorra history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Esperança d'Andorra
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 19:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Esperança d'Andorra are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Casa de Portugal are rated 109 Elo points higher
Elo 1,504 against 1,395. On rating alone Casa de Portugal would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Casa de Portugal score more
1.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Casa de Portugal, against 0.73 over 40 for Esperança d'Andorra.
-
Casa de Portugal concede fewer
Casa de Portugal concede 2.00 a game, Esperança d'Andorra 2.45.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of Casa de Portugal matches, against 58% for Esperança d'Andorra. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 27 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Esperança d'Andorra@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1504.2
ELO
1395.0
2
ELO · Matches
40
1504.2
Current Team ELO
1395.0
1395.0
Current Opponent ELO
1504.2
109.2
Current ELO Difference
-109.2
0.65
Expected score
0.35
2
History Matches
40
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.12
50.91
Overperformance
41.97
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
2
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
2
Matches
40
1.50
PPG
0.58
50.0%
Win rate
12.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
67.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
19
0.00
PPG
0.53
0.0%
Win rate
10.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
100.0%
Loss rate
68.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
1
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
0.73
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
42.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.79
100.0%
Scoring rate
57.9%
100.0%
BTTS rate
52.6%
2
History Matches
40
1.00
Goals Mean
0.73
0.00
Goals Std
0.92
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
15.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
5.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
2.45
50.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
4.00
Goals against per game
2.95
100.0%
Conceding rate
89.5%
2
History Matches
40
2.00
Conceded Mean
2.45
2.00
Conceded Std
2.07
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.0%
4.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
2
History Matches
40
0.63
Result entropy
0.77
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.49
36.91
Stability score
22.89
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
2
Eligible Matches
38
0
Lead Matches
4
—
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.83
0
Trailing Matches
22
—
Non-loss rate
13.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.18
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.45
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
240.0
Rest days
164.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
19
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.37
1
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.10
—
Portability PPG Range
0.19
—
Portability Score
83.87
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
2
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO109.2
PPG0.93
GF0.28
GA-0.45
PPG-0.53
PPG0.10
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-38
Clean-sheet rate37.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.42
History Matches-38
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std-0.92
Scored 1+ rate50.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.36
History Matches-38
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate15.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-38
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score14.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.66
Eligible Matches-36
Lead Matches-4
Trailing Matches-22
Halftime Coverage Matches-36
First Half Goals For Mean0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days75.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO109.2
Current Opponent ELO-109.2
Current ELO Difference218.4
Expected score0.30
History Matches-38
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance8.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Casa de Portugal
W
Carroi0–3Casa de Portugal1 Nov · away
Pick: Carroi 59% · missed D
Sporting Escaldes1–1Casa de Portugal24 Oct · away
Pick: Casa de Portugal 40% · missed W
Casa de Portugal3–0Penya Encarnada18 Oct · home
Pick: Penya Encarnada 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Esperança d'Andorra
W
Esperança d'Andorra5–1Sporting Escaldes31 Oct · home
Pick: Esperança d'Andorra 59% · hit W
Penya Encarnada0–1Esperança d'Andorra25 Oct · away
Pick: Penya Encarnada 53% · missed L
Esperança d'Andorra1–2FC Santa Coloma18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Santa Coloma 59% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Casa de Portugal and Esperança d'Andorra meet in 1a Divisió on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Casa de Portugal win 32.0%, draw 24.7%, Esperança d'Andorra win 43.3%. The pick is Esperança d'Andorra win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.