ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain Group 14 - 10 2026

Castuera vs Montijo

Castuera Home · Elo 1,445
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Montijo Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Montijo win
Castuera win
26.3%
Draw
26.1%
Montijo winPick
47.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Castuera history16 matches
Montijo history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Montijo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Montijo are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,445. On rating alone Montijo would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Castuera score more

    1.44 goals a game over 16 matches for Castuera, against 1.23 over 47 for Montijo.

  • Montijo concede fewer

    Castuera concede 2.13 a game, Montijo 0.94.

  • Castuera games more often go over 2.5 goals

    88% of Castuera matches, against 34% for Montijo. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Castuera
Montijo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.9
ELO
1525.5
16
ELO · Matches
47
1444.9
Current Team ELO
1525.5
1525.5
Current Opponent ELO
1444.9
-80.57
Current ELO Difference
80.57
0.39
Expected score
0.61
16
History Matches
47
-0.17
Residual Mean
0.02
42.43
Overperformance
51.66
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
47
0.75
PPG
1.55
18.8%
Win rate
42.6%
18.8%
Draw rate
27.7%
62.5%
Loss rate
29.8%
93.8%
Over 1.5 rate
59.6%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
34.0%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
24
1.00
PPG
1.08
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
62.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
8
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
1.23
81.3%
Scoring rate
70.2%
81.3%
BTTS rate
44.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.08
100.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
58.3%
16
History Matches
47
1.44
Goals Mean
1.23
1.12
Goals Std
1.22
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.2%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
31.9%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.13
Goals against per game
0.94
100.0%
Conceding rate
68.1%
2.13
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
16
History Matches
47
2.13
Conceded Mean
0.94
0.78
Conceded Std
0.86
81.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.1%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.3%
2.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
47
0.84
Result entropy
0.98
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.54
16.12
Stability score
1.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
46
2
Lead Matches
12
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
8
Trailing Matches
14
37.5%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
1.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
545.8
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
6
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.03
—
Portability PPG Range
0.07
—
Portability Score
93.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-80.57
PPG-0.80
GF0.20
GA1.19
PPG-0.08
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-31
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate11.0%
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean1.19
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Conceded 2+ rate62.1%
Conceded 3+ rate20.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score14.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate8.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.85
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days363.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-80.57
Current Opponent ELO80.57
Current ELO Difference-161.1
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-31
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-9.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Castuera

D
Castuera0–0Llerenense25 Oct · home
Pick: Llerenense 50% · missed
D
Quintana1–1Castuera21 Oct · away
Pick: Quintana 38% · missed
L
Moralo2–1Castuera18 Oct · away
Pick: Moralo 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Montijo

L
Montijo1–4Puebla Calzada1 Nov · home
Pick: Montijo 43% · missed
L
Gévora2–0Montijo25 Oct · away
Pick: Montijo 41% · missed
D
Montijo0–0Santa Amalia18 Oct · home
Pick: Montijo 42% · missed
W
Montijo2–0Jaraíz4 Oct · home
Pick: Jaraíz 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Castuera and Montijo meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Castuera win 26.3%, draw 26.1%, Montijo win 47.6%. The pick is Montijo win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.