ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain Group 14 - 10 2026

Puebla Calzada vs Cabeza Buey

Puebla Calzada Home · Elo 1,456
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cabeza Buey Away · Elo 1,554
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Puebla Calzada win
Puebla Calzada winPick
43.9%
Draw
28.9%
Cabeza Buey win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.2%
Under 2.554.8%

How much we know

Puebla Calzada history48 matches
Cabeza Buey history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Puebla Calzada are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cabeza Buey are rated 98 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,456. On rating alone Cabeza Buey would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Cabeza Buey score more

    1.04 goals a game over 48 matches for Puebla Calzada, against 1.30 over 33 for Cabeza Buey.

  • Cabeza Buey concede fewer

    Puebla Calzada concede 1.29 a game, Cabeza Buey 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Puebla Calzada matches, against 42% for Cabeza Buey. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Puebla Calzada
Cabeza Buey
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.2
ELO
1554.1
48
ELO · Matches
33
1456.2
Current Team ELO
1554.1
1554.1
Current Opponent ELO
1456.2
-97.88
Current ELO Difference
97.88
0.36
Expected score
0.64
48
History Matches
33
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.08
46.83
Overperformance
54.84
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
2.10
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
33
1.15
PPG
1.70
25.0%
Win rate
45.5%
39.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
35.4%
Loss rate
21.2%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
17
1.54
PPG
1.12
37.5%
Win rate
23.5%
41.7%
Draw rate
41.2%
20.8%
Loss rate
35.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
24
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.04
Goals for per game
1.30
64.6%
Scoring rate
78.8%
54.2%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.06
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.6%
58.3%
BTTS rate
58.8%
48
History Matches
33
1.04
Goals Mean
1.30
0.98
Goals Std
1.00
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
0.82
81.3%
Conceding rate
51.5%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.12
70.8%
Conceding rate
64.7%
48
History Matches
33
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.00
Conceded Std
1.00
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.2%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
33
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.37
1.60
Stability score
4.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
33
12
Lead Matches
10
41.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.56
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
181.8
Rest days
181.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
23
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.08
Portability PPG Std
—
0.16
Portability PPG Range
—
86.49
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-97.88
PPG-0.55
GF-0.26
GA0.47
PPG0.42
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Failed-to-score rate14.2%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.73
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches15
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-2.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.48
Lead Points Retention-0.34
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-97.88
Current Opponent ELO97.88
Current ELO Difference-195.8
Expected score-0.27
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Puebla Calzada

W
Montijo1–4Puebla Calzada1 Nov · away
Pick: Montijo 43% · missed
W
Puebla Calzada2–1Villafranca25 Oct · home
Pick: Villafranca 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cabeza Buey

D
Santa Amalia3–3Cabeza Buey25 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Amalia 38% · missed
W
Cabeza Buey2–1CD Zafra18 Oct · home
Pick: Cabeza Buey 58% · hit
D
Cabeza Buey1–1Villanovense4 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 34% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Puebla Calzada and Cabeza Buey meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Puebla Calzada win 43.9%, draw 28.9%, Cabeza Buey win 27.2%. The pick is Puebla Calzada win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.2%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.