ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 Spain Group 14 - 10 2026

Gévora vs Azuaga

Gévora Home · Elo 1,446
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Azuaga Away · Elo 1,580
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Azuaga win
Gévora win
22.4%
Draw
28.7%
Azuaga winPick
48.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Gévora history34 matches
Azuaga history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Azuaga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Azuaga are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,446. On rating alone Azuaga would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Azuaga score far more

    0.97 goals a game over 34 matches for Gévora, against 1.56 over 54 for Azuaga.

  • Azuaga concede fewer

    Gévora concede 1.53 a game, Azuaga 0.96.

  • Gévora games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Gévora matches, against 43% for Azuaga. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gévora
Azuaga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.0
ELO
1580.1
34
ELO · Matches
54
1446.0
Current Team ELO
1580.1
1580.1
Current Opponent ELO
1446.0
-134.1
Current ELO Difference
134.1
0.32
Expected score
0.68
34
History Matches
54
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.08
45.14
Overperformance
55.50
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
54
0.97
PPG
1.76
23.5%
Win rate
48.1%
26.5%
Draw rate
31.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
20.4%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.6%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
1.29
PPG
1.58
29.4%
Win rate
38.5%
41.2%
Draw rate
42.3%
29.4%
Loss rate
19.2%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.97
Goals for per game
1.56
67.6%
Scoring rate
79.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.42
70.6%
Scoring rate
73.1%
47.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
34
History Matches
54
0.97
Goals Mean
1.56
0.86
Goals Std
1.37
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
23.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.7%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
0.96
73.5%
Conceding rate
57.4%
1.29
Goals against per game
0.92
58.8%
Conceding rate
57.7%
34
History Matches
54
1.53
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.12
Conceded Std
1.05
55.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
54
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.55
5.44
Stability score
5.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
52
6
Lead Matches
20
16.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.28
Lead Points Retention
0.93
13
Trailing Matches
7
23.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
91.88
Rest days
168.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
27
0.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.89
17
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.21
—
Portability PPG Range
0.41
—
Portability Score
70.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-134.1
PPG-0.79
GF-0.58
GA0.57
PPG-0.28
PPG0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.67
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate28.1%
Conceded 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score0.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.73
Lead Points Retention-0.66
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-77.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.26
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-134.1
Current Opponent ELO134.1
Current ELO Difference-268.2
Expected score-0.37
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gévora

W
Gévora2–0Montijo25 Oct · home
Pick: Montijo 41% · missed
L
Villafranca2–1Gévora18 Oct · away
Pick: Villafranca 50% · hit
D
Moralo1–1Gévora4 Oct · away
Pick: Moralo 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Azuaga

W
CD Zafra1–2Azuaga25 Oct · away
Pick: Azuaga 34% · hit
W
Azuaga3–2Jaraíz18 Oct · home
Pick: Azuaga 37% · hit
W
Azuaga4–0Guadiana4 Oct · home
Pick: Azuaga 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gévora and Azuaga meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gévora win 22.4%, draw 28.7%, Azuaga win 48.9%. The pick is Azuaga win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.