ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise

Celta Vigo Home · Elo 1,596
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Union St. Gilloise Away · Elo 1,695
Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union St. Gilloise win
Celta Vigo win
24.6%
Draw
28.6%
Union St. Gilloise winPick
46.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Celta Vigo history83 matches
Union St. Gilloise history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Union St. Gilloise are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Union St. Gilloise are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,695 against 1,596. On rating alone Union St. Gilloise would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Union St. Gilloise score more

    1.47 goals a game over 83 matches for Celta Vigo, against 1.86 over 87 for Union St. Gilloise.

  • Union St. Gilloise concede fewer

    Celta Vigo concede 1.28 a game, Union St. Gilloise 0.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Celta Vigo matches, against 52% for Union St. Gilloise. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Celta Vigo
Union St. Gilloise
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.9
ELO
1694.8
83
ELO · Matches
87
1595.9
Current Team ELO
1694.8
1694.8
Current Opponent ELO
1595.9
-98.92
Current ELO Difference
98.92
0.36
Expected score
0.64
83
History Matches
87
0.05
Residual Mean
0.11
53.68
Overperformance
58.75
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
3.10
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.10
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.92
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.06
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
87
1.52
PPG
2.05
41.0%
Win rate
60.9%
28.9%
Draw rate
21.8%
30.1%
Loss rate
17.2%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
53.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.9%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
44
1.56
PPG
1.80
44.4%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
29.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
20.5%
86.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.7%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.5%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
36
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.47
Goals for per game
1.86
86.7%
Scoring rate
81.6%
65.1%
BTTS rate
46.0%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.70
88.9%
Scoring rate
79.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
83
History Matches
87
1.47
Goals Mean
1.86
0.96
Goals Std
1.47
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
42.2%
Scored 2+ rate
54.0%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.7%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
0.90
73.5%
Conceding rate
55.2%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.00
77.8%
Conceding rate
59.1%
83
History Matches
87
1.28
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.07
Conceded Std
1.21
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.2%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.0%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
87
0.99
Result entropy
0.85
1.35
Goal Difference Std
2.01
1.17
Stability score
14.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
87
21
Lead Matches
38
52.4%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.96
26
Trailing Matches
13
42.3%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
19.2%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.10
Rest days
82.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.47
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.78
50
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
11
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.05
Portability PPG Range
1.56
58.48
Portability Score
44.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-98.92
PPG-0.53
GF-0.39
GA0.38
PPG-0.24
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.90
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate20.1%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.06
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.66
Stability score-13.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.95
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.42
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate11.5%
Trailing Win Rate11.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score13.99
Rest days-7.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-98.92
Current Opponent ELO98.92
Current ELO Difference-197.8
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-5.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Celta Vigo

L
Rayo Vallecano3–0Celta Vigo31 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 37% · hit
D
Celta Vigo0–0Real Betis25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 42% · missed
W
Celtic1–2Celta Vigo22 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 48% · missed
W
Celta Vigo2–1Alaves18 Oct · home
Pick: Celta Vigo 41% · hit
L
Celta Vigo1–2Juventus15 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus 45% · hit

Union St. Gilloise

W
SK Beveren1–2Union St. Gilloise31 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 60% · hit
W
Union St. Gilloise5–2Cercle Brugge25 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 71% · hit
W
Union St. Gilloise4–0Hapoel Beer Sheva22 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 46% · hit
W
Union St. Gilloise3–0Nijlen18 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 75% · hit
D
Union St. Gilloise1–1Real Sociedad15 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 56% · missed

About this match

Celta Vigo and Union St. Gilloise meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Celta Vigo win 24.6%, draw 28.6%, Union St. Gilloise win 46.9%. The pick is Union St. Gilloise win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.