ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 5 Romania Group 5 - 12 2026

Cetatea vs Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu

Cetatea Home · Elo 1,535
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu Away · Elo 1,426
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cetatea win
Cetatea winPick
53.9%
Draw
21.7%
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu win
24.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%

How much we know

Cetatea history41 matches
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Cetatea are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cetatea are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,426. On rating alone Cetatea would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Cetatea score more

    1.66 goals a game over 41 matches for Cetatea, against 1.26 over 35 for Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu.

  • Cetatea concede fewer

    Cetatea concede 1.51 a game, Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 1.89.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Cetatea matches, against 54% for Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cetatea
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.7
ELO
1425.5
41
ELO · Matches
35
1534.7
Current Team ELO
1425.5
1425.5
Current Opponent ELO
1534.7
109.2
Current ELO Difference
-109.2
0.65
Expected score
0.35
41
History Matches
35
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.10
51.45
Overperformance
43.51
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
35
1.56
PPG
0.89
46.3%
Win rate
25.7%
17.1%
Draw rate
11.4%
36.6%
Loss rate
62.9%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
1.81
PPG
0.59
56.3%
Win rate
17.6%
12.5%
Draw rate
5.9%
31.3%
Loss rate
76.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.66
Goals for per game
1.26
75.6%
Scoring rate
60.0%
51.2%
BTTS rate
40.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.76
68.8%
Scoring rate
52.9%
31.3%
BTTS rate
41.2%
41
History Matches
35
1.66
Goals Mean
1.26
1.52
Goals Std
1.52
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.51
Goals against per game
1.89
73.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.76
56.3%
Conceding rate
88.2%
41
History Matches
35
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.40
Conceded Std
1.58
43.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.4%
19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
35
0.93
Result entropy
0.81
2.30
Goal Difference Std
2.43
6.60
Stability score
19.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
14
7
Lead Matches
4
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.75
9
Trailing Matches
4
11.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.29
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
92.90
Rest days
85.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.58
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.50
59.08
Portability Score
44.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO109.2
PPG0.68
GF0.40
GA-0.37
PPG1.22
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate32.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate15.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches6
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-12.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.63
Portability Score14.58
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.20
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO109.2
Current Opponent ELO-109.2
Current ELO Difference218.4
Expected score0.30
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance7.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cetatea

D
Cetatea1–1Omega Sport30 Oct · home
Pick: Cetatea 61% · missed
D
Progresul Spartac0–0Cetatea24 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Spartac 39% · missed
D
Cetatea1–1Alexandria16 Oct · home
Pick: Cetatea 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu

W
Dinamo Bucureşti II4–5Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu30 Oct · away
Pick: Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 44% · hit
W
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu5–3Voluntari II24 Oct · home
Pick: Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 62% · hit
W
Axi Adunații-Copăceni0–3Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu16 Oct · away
Pick: Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cetatea and Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu meet in Liga III - Serie 5 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Cetatea win 53.9%, draw 21.7%, Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu win 24.4%. The pick is Cetatea win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.8%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.