ScoreProb
National 2 - Group A France 2026

Chambly Thelle FC vs Chantilly

Chambly Thelle FC Home · Elo 1,526
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chantilly Away · Elo 1,456
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chambly Thelle FC win
Chambly Thelle FC winPick
47.6%
Draw
24.7%
Chantilly win
27.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Chambly Thelle FC history47 matches
Chantilly history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chambly Thelle FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chambly Thelle FC are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,526 against 1,456. On rating alone Chambly Thelle FC would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 47 matches for Chambly Thelle FC, against 1.24 over 49 for Chantilly.

  • Chambly Thelle FC concede fewer

    Chambly Thelle FC concede 1.06 a game, Chantilly 1.41.

  • Chantilly games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Chambly Thelle FC matches, against 53% for Chantilly. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chambly Thelle FC
Chantilly@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.5
ELO
1456.1
47
ELO · Matches
49
1525.5
Current Team ELO
1456.1
1456.1
Current Opponent ELO
1525.5
69.46
Current ELO Difference
-69.46
0.60
Expected score
0.40
47
History Matches
49
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
51.16
Overperformance
47.04
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.99
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
49
1.47
PPG
1.10
38.3%
Win rate
26.5%
31.9%
Draw rate
30.6%
29.8%
Loss rate
42.9%
68.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
24
1.71
PPG
1.29
47.6%
Win rate
33.3%
28.6%
Draw rate
29.2%
23.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
21
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.24
61.7%
Scoring rate
75.5%
38.3%
BTTS rate
61.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.42
85.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
49
1.34
Goals Mean
1.24
1.53
Goals Std
0.98
61.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
34.7%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.06
Goals against per game
1.41
59.6%
Conceding rate
75.5%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.42
61.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
49
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.04
Conceded Std
1.09
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.33
0.53
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
10
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.63
13
Trailing Matches
14
15.4%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.77
Portability PPG Range
1.32
56.60
Portability Score
46.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO69.46
PPG0.37
GF0.10
GA-0.34
PPG2.00
PPG0.42
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate13.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.97
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score-1.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.60
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate16.9%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score9.74
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO69.46
Current Opponent ELO-69.46
Current ELO Difference138.9
Expected score0.20
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chambly Thelle FC

W
Montlouis1–2Chambly Thelle FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Chambly Thelle FC 37% · hit
W
Chambly Thelle FC3–2Dieppe17 Oct · home
Pick: Chambly Thelle FC 53% · hit
W
Racing Colombes 921–2Chambly Thelle FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Racing Colombes 92 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chantilly

L
Chantilly1–3Haguenau29 Aug · home
Pick: Chantilly 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chambly Thelle FC and Chantilly meet in National 2 - Group A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chambly Thelle FC win 47.6%, draw 24.7%, Chantilly win 27.8%. The pick is Chambly Thelle FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.