ScoreProb
National 2 - Group A France Group A - 9 2026

Haguenau vs Colmar

Haguenau Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Colmar Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Haguenau win
Haguenau winPick
48.8%
Draw
28.5%
Colmar win
22.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Haguenau history46 matches
Colmar history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Haguenau are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Haguenau are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,491. On rating alone Haguenau would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Colmar score more

    1.30 goals a game over 46 matches for Haguenau, against 1.63 over 38 for Colmar.

  • Haguenau concede fewer

    Haguenau concede 1.15 a game, Colmar 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Haguenau matches, against 53% for Colmar. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Haguenau
Colmar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.5
ELO
1491.2
46
ELO · Matches
38
1539.5
Current Team ELO
1491.2
1491.2
Current Opponent ELO
1539.5
48.35
Current ELO Difference
-48.35
0.57
Expected score
0.43
46
History Matches
38
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.97
Overperformance
49.19
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
38
1.57
PPG
1.34
45.7%
Win rate
34.2%
19.6%
Draw rate
31.6%
34.8%
Loss rate
34.2%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
19
1.61
PPG
1.42
47.8%
Win rate
36.8%
17.4%
Draw rate
31.6%
34.8%
Loss rate
31.6%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
23
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.63
65.2%
Scoring rate
78.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.63
73.9%
Scoring rate
84.2%
60.9%
BTTS rate
57.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
38
1.30
Goals Mean
1.63
1.23
Goals Std
1.44
65.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
23.7%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.42
76.1%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.47
78.3%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
38
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.06
Conceded Std
1.39
21.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.5%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.7%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
38
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
1.65
Goal Difference Std
2.07
4.93
Stability score
0.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
36
15
Lead Matches
11
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.79
11
Trailing Matches
10
9.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.59
83.33
Portability Score
62.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO48.35
PPG0.22
GF-0.33
GA-0.27
PPG0.00
PPG0.19
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate10.3%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score4.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score20.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO48.35
Current Opponent ELO-48.35
Current ELO Difference96.69
Expected score0.14
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Haguenau

L
Creteil7–0Haguenau31 Oct · away
Pick: Creteil 53% · hit
W
Chantilly1–3Haguenau29 Aug · away
Pick: Chantilly 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Colmar

L
Bastia-Borgo3–0Colmar17 Oct · away
Pick: Bastia-Borgo 47% · hit
W
Colmar1–0Biesheim29 Aug · home
Pick: Biesheim 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Haguenau and Colmar meet in National 2 - Group A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Haguenau win 48.8%, draw 28.5%, Colmar win 22.7%. The pick is Haguenau win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.