ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 16 2026

Chełmianka Chełm vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Chełmianka Chełm Home · Elo 1,631
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wiślanie Jaśkowice Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chełmianka Chełm win
Chełmianka Chełm winPick
54.3%
Draw
21.8%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice win
23.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%

How much we know

Chełmianka Chełm history58 matches
Wiślanie Jaśkowice history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Chełmianka Chełm are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chełmianka Chełm are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,558. On rating alone Chełmianka Chełm would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Chełmianka Chełm score more

    1.98 goals a game over 58 matches for Chełmianka Chełm, against 1.59 over 61 for Wiślanie Jaśkowice.

  • Chełmianka Chełm concede fewer

    Chełmianka Chełm concede 1.31 a game, Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Chełmianka Chełm matches, against 66% for Wiślanie Jaśkowice. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chełmianka Chełm
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.9
ELO
1557.7
58
ELO · Matches
61
1630.9
Current Team ELO
1557.7
1557.7
Current Opponent ELO
1630.9
73.23
Current ELO Difference
-73.23
0.60
Expected score
0.40
58
History Matches
61
0.11
Residual Mean
0.05
58.14
Overperformance
53.70
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.20
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
2.30
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
61
1.91
PPG
1.54
56.9%
Win rate
45.9%
20.7%
Draw rate
16.4%
22.4%
Loss rate
37.7%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
2.18
PPG
1.70
67.9%
Win rate
53.3%
14.3%
Draw rate
10.0%
17.9%
Loss rate
36.7%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.91
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.98
Goals for per game
1.59
89.7%
Scoring rate
80.3%
63.8%
BTTS rate
60.7%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.60
96.4%
Scoring rate
76.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
53.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
58
History Matches
61
1.98
Goals Mean
1.59
1.41
Goals Std
1.34
89.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.5%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.4%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.61
69.0%
Conceding rate
77.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.80
71.4%
Conceding rate
76.7%
0.20
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
58
History Matches
61
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.23
Conceded Std
1.60
37.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.3%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
80.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
61
0.89
Result entropy
0.93
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.35
10.61
Stability score
7.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
58
26
Lead Matches
22
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.94
16
Trailing Matches
22
31.3%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
28
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.60
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.60
1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.67
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.83
39.18
Portability Score
42.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO73.23
PPG0.37
GF0.39
GA-0.30
PPG0.40
PPG0.48
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate9.4%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score3.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate13.1%
Trailing Win Rate20.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-3.62
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO73.23
Current Opponent ELO-73.23
Current ELO Difference146.5
Expected score0.21
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chełmianka Chełm

W
Busko-Zdroj0–3Chełmianka Chełm31 Oct · away
Pick: Chełmianka Chełm 63% · hit
W
Chełmianka Chełm2–0Korona Kielce II24 Oct · home
Pick: Chełmianka Chełm 66% · hit
D
Hetman Zamosc2–2Chełmianka Chełm4 Oct · away
Pick: Chełmianka Chełm 57% · missed
W
Chełmianka Chełm1–0KS Wieczysta Krakow II29 Aug · home
Pick: Chełmianka Chełm 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

W
Korona Kielce II1–2Wiślanie Jaśkowice29 Oct · away
Pick: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 47% · hit
L
Wiślanie Jaśkowice1–2Star Starachowice23 Oct · home
Pick: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chełmianka Chełm and Wiślanie Jaśkowice meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chełmianka Chełm win 54.3%, draw 21.8%, Wiślanie Jaśkowice win 23.9%. The pick is Chełmianka Chełm win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.