ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 16 2026

Wisła Kraków II vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Wisła Kraków II Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wisła Kraków II win
Wisła Kraków II winPick
50.0%
Draw
19.5%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg win
30.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.8%
No37.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%

How much we know

Wisła Kraków II history49 matches
Siarka Tarnobrzeg history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wisła Kraków II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wisła Kraków II are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,448. On rating alone Wisła Kraków II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Siarka Tarnobrzeg score more

    1.80 goals a game over 49 matches for Wisła Kraków II, against 2.10 over 63 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg.

  • Defences are close

    Wisła Kraków II concede 1.73 a game, Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.57.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Wisła Kraków II matches, against 67% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wisła Kraków II
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.6
ELO
1447.8
49
ELO · Matches
63
1522.6
Current Team ELO
1447.8
1447.8
Current Opponent ELO
1522.6
74.80
Current ELO Difference
-74.80
0.61
Expected score
0.39
49
History Matches
63
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.32
Overperformance
48.08
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.50
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
2.30
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.68
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
63
1.39
PPG
1.30
42.9%
Win rate
33.3%
10.2%
Draw rate
30.2%
46.9%
Loss rate
36.5%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
65.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
52.4%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
1.65
PPG
1.19
52.2%
Win rate
26.9%
8.7%
Draw rate
38.5%
39.1%
Loss rate
34.6%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
2.10
83.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
59.2%
BTTS rate
65.1%
2.09
Goals for per game
1.50
91.3%
Scoring rate
65.4%
56.5%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
49
History Matches
63
1.80
Goals Mean
2.10
1.46
Goals Std
2.04
83.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
55.1%
Scored 2+ rate
52.4%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
30.2%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.73
Goals against per game
1.57
73.5%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.35
Goals against per game
1.50
60.9%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
63
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.50
Conceded Std
1.26
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.2%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.5%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
63
0.87
Result entropy
1.00
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.49
13.43
Stability score
0.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
62
15
Lead Matches
26
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.77
14
Trailing Matches
18
21.4%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
75.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
25
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
4
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.00
49.88
Portability Score
59.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO74.80
PPG0.09
GF-0.30
GA0.16
PPG1.20
PPG0.46
PPG1.20
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate19.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.59
Scored 1+ rate5.9%
Scored 2+ rate2.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score13.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate15.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-9.18
Rest days1.23
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO74.80
Current Opponent ELO-74.80
Current ELO Difference149.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.47

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wisła Kraków II

W
KS Wieczysta Krakow II1–2Wisła Kraków II30 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 40% · hit
W
Wisła Kraków II3–1Wisłoka Dębica24 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 49% · hit
L
Sokół Kolb.1–0Wisła Kraków II17 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 44% · missed
L
Busko-Zdroj3–0Wisła Kraków II4 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 42% · missed
D
Naprzód0–0Wisła Kraków II30 Aug · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków II 50% · missed

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

D
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–1Naprzód31 Oct · home
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 57% · missed
W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1–0Lech Poznan28 Oct · home
Pick: Lech Poznan 54% · missed
W
Moravia Morawica2–3Siarka Tarnobrzeg24 Oct · away
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41% · hit
W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg4–0Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów17 Oct · home
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 52% · hit
W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg3–2Zaglebie Lubin1 Sep · home
Pick: Zaglebie Lubin 44% · missed

About this match

Wisła Kraków II and Siarka Tarnobrzeg meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wisła Kraków II win 50.0%, draw 19.5%, Siarka Tarnobrzeg win 30.5%. The pick is Wisła Kraków II win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.3%. Both teams to score: 62.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.