ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 4 Poland Group IV - 16 2026

Moravia Morawica vs Star Starachowice

Moravia Morawica Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Star Starachowice Away · Elo 1,537
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Star Starachowice win
Moravia Morawica win
32.3%
Draw
25.1%
Star Starachowice winPick
42.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Moravia Morawica history9 matches
Star Starachowice history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Star Starachowice are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Star Starachowice are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,470. On rating alone Star Starachowice would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Star Starachowice score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 9 matches for Moravia Morawica, against 1.66 over 62 for Star Starachowice.

  • Star Starachowice concede fewer

    Moravia Morawica concede 2.56 a game, Star Starachowice 1.40.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Moravia Morawica matches, against 56% for Star Starachowice. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Moravia Morawica
Star Starachowice
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1470.4
ELO
1537.1
9
ELO · Matches
62
1470.4
Current Team ELO
1537.1
1537.1
Current Opponent ELO
1470.4
-66.71
Current ELO Difference
66.71
0.41
Expected score
0.59
9
History Matches
62
-0.17
Residual Mean
0.03
44.60
Overperformance
52.12
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
9
Matches
10
0.78
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.56
Goals against per game
1.70
22.2%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.71
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
62
0.78
PPG
1.58
22.2%
Win rate
43.5%
11.1%
Draw rate
27.4%
66.7%
Loss rate
29.0%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.5%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
2.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
31
1.00
PPG
1.16
25.0%
Win rate
29.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
41.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
4
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.66
44.4%
Scoring rate
82.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
59.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.26
50.0%
Scoring rate
74.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
40.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
9
History Matches
62
1.00
Goals Mean
1.66
1.33
Goals Std
1.32
44.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.56
Goals against per game
1.40
88.9%
Conceding rate
72.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.55
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
9
History Matches
62
2.56
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.95
Conceded Std
1.26
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
44.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
55.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
55.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
62
0.77
Result entropy
0.98
2.71
Goal Difference Std
1.99
22.75
Stability score
2.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
8
Eligible Matches
61
2
Lead Matches
25
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.85
5
Trailing Matches
18
0.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
2
Normal Rest History Matches
26
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
5
Long Rest History Matches
29
0.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.78
51.28
Portability Score
62.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-66.71
PPG-0.80
GF-0.66
GA1.15
PPG0.20
PPG-0.16
PPG0.20
PPG-0.42
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-53
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate37.8%
History Matches-27
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate24.2%
History Matches-53
Goals Mean-0.66
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.38
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches-53
Conceded Mean1.15
Conceded Std0.69
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate25.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.60
History Matches-53
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std0.72
Stability score20.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.91
Eligible Matches-53
Lead Matches-23
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.44
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-53
First Half Goals For Mean-0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.59
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-10.97
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.15
Long Rest History Matches-24
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Current Team ELO-66.71
Current Opponent ELO66.71
Current ELO Difference-133.4
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-53
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-7.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Moravia Morawica

W
Podlasie Biała Podlaska0–4Moravia Morawica30 Oct · away
Pick: Podlasie Biała Podlaska 75% · missed
L
Moravia Morawica2–3Siarka Tarnobrzeg24 Oct · home
Pick: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 41% · hit
L
KS Wieczysta Krakow II1–0Moravia Morawica17 Oct · away
Pick: KS Wieczysta Krakow II 58% · hit
L
Moravia Morawica0–4KSZO 192930 Aug · home
Pick: KSZO 1929 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Star Starachowice

W
Star Starachowice4–3Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów30 Oct · home
Pick: Star Starachowice 51% · hit
W
Wiślanie Jaśkowice1–2Star Starachowice23 Oct · away
Pick: Wiślanie Jaśkowice 56% · missed
W
Star Starachowice4–1Korona Kielce II17 Oct · home
Pick: Star Starachowice 52% · hit
L
Jarosław3–0Star Starachowice29 Aug · away
Pick: Jarosław 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Moravia Morawica and Star Starachowice meet in III Liga - Group 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Moravia Morawica win 32.3%, draw 25.1%, Star Starachowice win 42.6%. The pick is Star Starachowice win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.