Chelsea W vs Manchester City W
Match result probability Model pick: Chelsea W win
Chelsea W winPick
58.7%
Draw
24.5%
Manchester City W win
16.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.6%
No42.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%
How much we know
Chelsea W history58 matches
Manchester City W history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Chelsea W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Chelsea W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,700 against 1,679. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Manchester City W score more
2.19 goals a game over 58 matches for Chelsea W, against 2.53 over 49 for Manchester City W.
-
Chelsea W concede fewer
Chelsea W concede 0.88 a game, Manchester City W 1.02.
-
Manchester City W games more often go over 2.5 goals
55% of Chelsea W matches, against 71% for Manchester City W. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Manchester City W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1700.0
ELO
1678.9
58
ELO · Matches
49
1700.0
Current Team ELO
1678.9
1678.9
Current Opponent ELO
1700.0
21.11
Current ELO Difference
-21.11
0.53
Expected score
0.47
58
History Matches
49
0.18
Residual Mean
0.18
63.73
Overperformance
62.45
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.00
2.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.30
2.10
Goals for per game
2.60
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
49
2.29
PPG
2.20
70.7%
Win rate
69.4%
17.2%
Draw rate
12.2%
12.1%
Loss rate
18.4%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
26
2.50
PPG
2.04
79.4%
Win rate
61.5%
11.8%
Draw rate
19.2%
8.8%
Loss rate
19.2%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
34
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.19
Goals for per game
2.53
94.8%
Scoring rate
89.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.21
Goals for per game
2.23
94.1%
Scoring rate
88.5%
41.2%
BTTS rate
61.5%
58
History Matches
49
2.19
Goals Mean
2.53
1.67
Goals Std
1.67
94.8%
Scored 1+ rate
89.8%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
71.4%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
42.9%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
2.23
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.88
Goals against per game
1.02
55.2%
Conceding rate
65.3%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.08
47.1%
Conceding rate
69.2%
58
History Matches
49
0.88
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.12
Conceded Std
0.98
17.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.5%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
5.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
5.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
49
0.73
Result entropy
0.75
2.19
Goal Difference Std
2.02
26.86
Stability score
25.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
58
Eligible Matches
49
31
Lead Matches
26
87.1%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.94
7
Trailing Matches
10
28.6%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.31
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
182.1
Rest days
167.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.41
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.31
2.25
Portability PPG Range
0.80
41.07
Portability Score
61.55
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO21.11
PPG0.09
GF-0.34
GA-0.14
PPG0.46
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score1.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range1.45
Portability Score-20.48
Rest days15.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.33
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO21.11
Current Opponent ELO-21.11
Current ELO Difference42.23
Expected score0.06
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Chelsea W
W
Charlton Athletic W0–6Chelsea W1 Nov · away
Pick: Chelsea W 48% · hit W
Chelsea W2–0Roma W28 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea W 53% · hit W
Crystal Palace W1–3Chelsea W25 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea W 51% · hit W
Chelsea W6–2Tottenham Hotspur W18 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea W 69% · hit W
West Ham W0–3Chelsea W4 Oct · away
Pick: Chelsea W 55% · hit Manchester City W
W
London City Lionesses W1–2Manchester City W1 Nov · away
Pick: Manchester City W 48% · hit D
Manchester City W1–1Paris Saint Germain W29 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City W 56% · missed D
Manchester United W1–1Manchester City W25 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United W 49% · missed W
Manchester City W3–2Brighton W18 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City W 65% · hit W
Manchester City W4–2Arsenal W4 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal W 41% · missed About this match
Chelsea W and Manchester City W meet in FA WSL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stamford Bridge, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Chelsea W win 58.7%, draw 24.5%, Manchester City W win 16.8%. The pick is Chelsea W win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.