Arsenal W vs London City Lionesses W
Match result probability Model pick: Arsenal W win
Arsenal W winPick
71.5%
Draw
15.6%
London City Lionesses W win
12.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.5%
No44.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%
How much we know
Arsenal W history60 matches
London City Lionesses W history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Arsenal W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.5%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.
Why Arsenal W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Arsenal W are rated 166 Elo points higher
Elo 1,679 against 1,513. On rating alone Arsenal W would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.
-
Arsenal W score far more
2.35 goals a game over 60 matches for Arsenal W, against 1.34 over 35 for London City Lionesses W.
-
Arsenal W concede fewer
Arsenal W concede 1.02 a game, London City Lionesses W 1.29.
-
Arsenal W games more often go over 2.5 goals
62% of Arsenal W matches, against 46% for London City Lionesses W. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
London City Lionesses W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1679.1
ELO
1512.7
60
ELO · Matches
35
1679.1
Current Team ELO
1512.7
1512.7
Current Opponent ELO
1679.1
166.4
Current ELO Difference
-166.4
0.72
Expected score
0.28
60
History Matches
35
0.16
Residual Mean
0.01
61.92
Overperformance
50.92
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
2.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
2.15
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals 90
60
Matches
35
2.07
PPG
1.49
65.0%
Win rate
42.9%
11.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
23.3%
Loss rate
37.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
61.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
18
2.24
PPG
1.39
70.6%
Win rate
38.9%
11.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
17.6%
Loss rate
38.9%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
34
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.35
Goals for per game
1.34
85.0%
Scoring rate
77.1%
48.3%
BTTS rate
54.3%
2.44
Goals for per game
1.17
88.2%
Scoring rate
77.8%
47.1%
BTTS rate
61.1%
60
History Matches
35
2.35
Goals Mean
1.34
1.69
Goals Std
1.19
85.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
65.0%
Scored 2+ rate
34.3%
41.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
2.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.29
58.3%
Conceding rate
74.3%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.39
55.9%
Conceding rate
77.8%
60
History Matches
35
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.16
Conceded Std
1.18
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.3%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
60
History Matches
35
0.79
Result entropy
0.96
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.77
20.79
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
60
Eligible Matches
35
27
Lead Matches
8
92.6%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.92
14
Trailing Matches
15
35.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
1.05
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.30
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
182.2
Rest days
182.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
41
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
13
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.52
Portability PPG Range
0.92
73.88
Portability Score
55.42
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
60
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO166.4
PPG0.58
GF1.01
GA-0.27
PPG0.85
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches25
Goals Mean1.01
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate30.7%
Scored 3+ rate30.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.79
History Matches25
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches25
Result entropy-0.17
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score16.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.02
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate5.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate8.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score18.46
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match1.41
Current Team ELO166.4
Current Opponent ELO-166.4
Current ELO Difference332.8
Expected score0.45
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance11.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Arsenal W
D
Arsenal W1–1Aston Villa W1 Nov · home
Pick: Arsenal W 78% · missed W
Arsenal W3–0SL Benfica W28 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal W 63% · hit W
Tottenham Hotspur W1–2Arsenal W24 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal W 53% · hit D
Arsenal W1–1Birmingham City W17 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal W 62% · missed L
Manchester City W4–2Arsenal W4 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal W 41% · missed London City Lionesses W
L
London City Lionesses W1–2Manchester City W1 Nov · home
Pick: Manchester City W 48% · hit W
London City Lionesses W4–2Crystal Palace W28 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace W 42% · missed D
Liverpool W2–2London City Lionesses W25 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool W 47% · missed W
West Ham W1–2London City Lionesses W21 Oct · away
Pick: West Ham W 48% · missed W
London City Lionesses W2–1Everton W18 Oct · home
Pick: Everton W 40% · missed About this match
Arsenal W and London City Lionesses W meet in FA WSL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Emirates Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Arsenal W win 71.5%, draw 15.6%, London City Lionesses W win 12.9%. The pick is Arsenal W win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.