ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 19 2026

Chelyabinsk vs Veles

Chelyabinsk Home · Elo 1,485
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Veles Away · Elo 1,572
Central Stadium, Chelyabinsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chelyabinsk win
Chelyabinsk winPick
36.2%
Draw
28.2%
Veles win
35.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%

How much we know

Chelyabinsk history75 matches
Veles history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.

Why Chelyabinsk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Veles are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,572 against 1,485. On rating alone Veles would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Veles score more

    1.12 goals a game over 75 matches for Chelyabinsk, against 1.39 over 70 for Veles.

  • Veles concede fewer

    Chelyabinsk concede 1.27 a game, Veles 0.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Chelyabinsk matches, against 43% for Veles. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chelyabinsk
Veles@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.2
ELO
1571.6
75
ELO · Matches
70
1485.2
Current Team ELO
1571.6
1571.6
Current Opponent ELO
1485.2
-86.32
Current ELO Difference
86.32
0.38
Expected score
0.62
75
History Matches
70
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.32
Overperformance
53.90
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
70
1.32
PPG
1.66
33.3%
Win rate
48.6%
32.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
34.7%
Loss rate
31.4%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
62.9%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
35
1.53
PPG
1.31
39.5%
Win rate
34.3%
34.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
26.3%
Loss rate
37.1%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
54.3%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.1%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
38
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.12
Goals for per game
1.39
70.7%
Scoring rate
74.3%
49.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.39
Goals for per game
1.06
78.9%
Scoring rate
60.0%
55.3%
BTTS rate
34.3%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.50
71.4%
Scoring rate
87.5%
57.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
75
History Matches
70
1.12
Goals Mean
1.39
0.98
Goals Std
1.20
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
29.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.4%
10.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
0.97
65.3%
Conceding rate
58.6%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.06
63.2%
Conceding rate
54.3%
1.86
Goals against per game
1.25
85.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
75
History Matches
70
1.27
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.32
Conceded Std
1.01
38.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
70
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.56
0.05
Stability score
5.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
70
18
Lead Matches
20
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.80
20
Trailing Matches
16
15.0%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.42
Rest days
81.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
27
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
8
1.00
PPG
2.25
28.6%
Win rate
75.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
57.1%
Loss rate
25.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
7
Current Competition Matches
8
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
6
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.92
69.16
Portability Score
56.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-86.32
PPG-0.34
GF-0.27
GA0.30
PPG-1.25
PPG0.21
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches5
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-5.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.96
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score13.04
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-86.32
Current Opponent ELO86.32
Current ELO Difference-172.6
Expected score-0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chelyabinsk

L
FC Sochi2–1Chelyabinsk30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Sochi 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Veles

D
Veles1–1Spartak Kostroma30 Oct · home
Pick: Veles 39% · missed
L
Veles1–2Volga Ulyanovsk4 Oct · home
Pick: Veles 50% · missed
W
Tekstilshchik0–1Veles29 Aug · away
Pick: Tekstilshchik 37% · missed
W
Veles2–0Arsenal Tula24 Aug · home
Pick: Veles 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chelyabinsk and Veles meet in First League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Central Stadium, Chelyabinsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Chelyabinsk win 36.2%, draw 28.2%, Veles win 35.6%. The pick is Chelyabinsk win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.6%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.