ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 19 2026

FC UFA vs Spartak Kostroma

FC UFA Home · Elo 1,496
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spartak Kostroma Away · Elo 1,538
BetBoom Arena, Ufa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Kostroma win
FC UFA win
33.9%
Draw
30.0%
Spartak Kostroma winPick
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%

How much we know

FC UFA history64 matches
Spartak Kostroma history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.

Why Spartak Kostroma are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spartak Kostroma are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,496. On rating alone Spartak Kostroma would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Spartak Kostroma score more

    1.06 goals a game over 64 matches for FC UFA, against 1.50 over 70 for Spartak Kostroma.

  • Spartak Kostroma concede fewer

    FC UFA concede 1.22 a game, Spartak Kostroma 1.04.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of FC UFA matches, against 43% for Spartak Kostroma. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC UFA
Spartak Kostroma@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.1
ELO
1537.6
64
ELO · Matches
70
1496.1
Current Team ELO
1537.6
1537.6
Current Opponent ELO
1496.1
-41.52
Current ELO Difference
41.52
0.44
Expected score
0.56
64
History Matches
70
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
49.45
Overperformance
51.70
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
70
1.17
PPG
1.61
28.1%
Win rate
42.9%
32.8%
Draw rate
32.9%
39.1%
Loss rate
24.3%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
36
1.77
PPG
1.53
50.0%
Win rate
41.7%
26.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
23.3%
Loss rate
30.6%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
30
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.06
Goals for per game
1.50
65.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
46.9%
BTTS rate
61.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.44
76.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
43.3%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.57
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
64
History Matches
70
1.06
Goals Mean
1.50
1.03
Goals Std
1.24
65.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
28.1%
Scored 2+ rate
41.4%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.04
71.9%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.19
56.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.14
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
64
History Matches
70
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.12
Conceded Std
0.80
34.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.55
0.82
Stability score
2.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
68
19
Lead Matches
20
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
17
12.5%
Non-loss rate
47.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.38
Rest days
84.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
39
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.71
PPG
1.71
42.9%
Win rate
42.9%
42.9%
Draw rate
42.9%
14.3%
Loss rate
14.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.71
Current Competition PPG
1.71
0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.43
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.71
Portability PPG Range
0.67
65.31
Portability Score
65.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-41.52
PPG-0.44
GF-0.44
GA0.18
PPG0.00
PPG0.24
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate18.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate14.4%
Conceded 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-1.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-0.61
Rest days-1.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-41.52
Current Opponent ELO41.52
Current ELO Difference-83.04
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC UFA

D
Rotor Volgograd0–0FC UFA1 Nov · away
Pick: Rotor Volgograd 47% · missed
L
FC UFA0–1Nizhny Novgorod24 Oct · home
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Spartak Kostroma

L
Spartak Kostroma2–3Volna Nizhegorodskaya3 Nov · home
Pick: Spartak Kostroma 45% · missed
D
Veles1–1Spartak Kostroma30 Oct · away
Pick: Veles 39% · missed
L
Shinnik Yaroslavl2–1Spartak Kostroma26 Oct · away
Pick: Shinnik Yaroslavl 36% · hit
W
Spartak Kostroma1–0Rotor Volgograd31 Aug · home
Pick: Spartak Kostroma 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC UFA and Spartak Kostroma meet in First League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at BetBoom Arena, Ufa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: FC UFA win 33.9%, draw 30.0%, Spartak Kostroma win 36.1%. The pick is Spartak Kostroma win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.6%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.