ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 19 2026

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Torpedo Moskva

Volga Ulyanovsk Home · Elo 1,473
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Torpedo Moskva Away · Elo 1,580
Trud Stadium, Ulyanovsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Torpedo Moskva win
Volga Ulyanovsk win
22.6%
Draw
22.8%
Torpedo Moskva winPick
54.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%

How much we know

Volga Ulyanovsk history70 matches
Torpedo Moskva history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.6%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Torpedo Moskva are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Torpedo Moskva are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,473. On rating alone Torpedo Moskva would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 70 matches for Volga Ulyanovsk, against 1.26 over 73 for Torpedo Moskva.

  • Torpedo Moskva concede fewer

    Volga Ulyanovsk concede 1.30 a game, Torpedo Moskva 1.01.

  • Volga Ulyanovsk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Volga Ulyanovsk matches, against 37% for Torpedo Moskva. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Volga Ulyanovsk
Torpedo Moskva@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.6
ELO
1580.5
70
ELO · Matches
73
1472.6
Current Team ELO
1580.5
1580.5
Current Opponent ELO
1472.6
-107.9
Current ELO Difference
107.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
70
History Matches
73
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
48.45
Overperformance
54.63
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.70
Goals against per game
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
73
1.31
PPG
1.58
34.3%
Win rate
45.2%
28.6%
Draw rate
21.9%
37.1%
Loss rate
32.9%
72.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
55.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
25.7%
Over 3.5 rate
17.8%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
35
1.31
PPG
1.51
37.1%
Win rate
45.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.1%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
35
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.26
71.4%
Scoring rate
74.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
39.7%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.17
74.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
54.3%
BTTS rate
34.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.86
71.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
70
History Matches
73
1.27
Goals Mean
1.26
1.11
Goals Std
1.11
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
74.0%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
31.5%
12.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.01
75.7%
Conceding rate
58.9%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.06
71.4%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.71
Goals against per game
0.71
85.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
70
History Matches
73
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.03
Conceded Std
1.03
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
73
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.53
Stability score
3.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
71
18
Lead Matches
25
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.84
24
Trailing Matches
19
29.2%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.42
Rest days
84.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
44
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
0.86
PPG
1.86
28.6%
Win rate
57.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
71.4%
Loss rate
28.6%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.86
Current Competition PPG
1.86
-0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.14
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.03
Portability PPG Range
1.17
56.40
Portability Score
56.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-107.9
PPG-0.26
GF0.01
GA0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate7.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-3.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate8.9%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate13.4%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.86
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score0.17
Rest days-0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-107.9
Current Opponent ELO107.9
Current ELO Difference-215.7
Expected score-0.30
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Volga Ulyanovsk

W
Veles1–2Volga Ulyanovsk4 Oct · away
Pick: Veles 50% · missed
D
Nizhny Novgorod2–2Volga Ulyanovsk30 Aug · away
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Torpedo Moskva

D
KAMAZ1–1Torpedo Moskva1 Nov · away
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 51% · missed
W
Ska-khabarovsk0–2Torpedo Moskva30 Aug · away
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Volga Ulyanovsk and Torpedo Moskva meet in First League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Trud Stadium, Ulyanovsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Volga Ulyanovsk win 22.6%, draw 22.8%, Torpedo Moskva win 54.6%. The pick is Torpedo Moskva win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.0%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.