ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 19 2026

Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets

Ska-khabarovsk Home · Elo 1,456
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leningradets Away · Elo 1,514
Petrovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leningradets win
Ska-khabarovsk win
34.9%
Draw
26.0%
Leningradets winPick
39.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Ska-khabarovsk history62 matches
Leningradets history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.

Why Leningradets are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leningradets are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,456. On rating alone Leningradets would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Ska-khabarovsk score more

    1.21 goals a game over 62 matches for Ska-khabarovsk, against 1.06 over 70 for Leningradets.

  • Leningradets concede fewer

    Ska-khabarovsk concede 1.45 a game, Leningradets 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Ska-khabarovsk matches, against 46% for Leningradets. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ska-khabarovsk
Leningradets@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.1
ELO
1513.8
62
ELO · Matches
70
1456.1
Current Team ELO
1513.8
1513.8
Current Opponent ELO
1456.1
-57.77
Current ELO Difference
57.77
0.42
Expected score
0.58
62
History Matches
70
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.98
Overperformance
50.56
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.70
1.20
Goals for per game
0.50
2.10
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
70
1.32
PPG
1.43
37.1%
Win rate
38.6%
21.0%
Draw rate
27.1%
41.9%
Loss rate
34.3%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
67.1%
51.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
36
1.56
PPG
1.25
44.1%
Win rate
33.3%
23.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
32.4%
Loss rate
41.7%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
34
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.06
77.4%
Scoring rate
62.9%
54.8%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.32
Goals for per game
0.83
85.3%
Scoring rate
52.8%
58.8%
BTTS rate
30.6%
0.86
Goals for per game
0.57
57.1%
Scoring rate
42.9%
42.9%
BTTS rate
42.9%
62
History Matches
70
1.21
Goals Mean
1.06
0.99
Goals Std
1.04
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
29.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.6%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.30
74.2%
Conceding rate
67.1%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.44
70.6%
Conceding rate
63.9%
2.14
Goals against per game
1.29
85.7%
Conceding rate
71.4%
62
History Matches
70
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.19
Conceded Std
1.31
43.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.3%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.2%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.2%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
70
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.74
3.53
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
70
15
Lead Matches
15
93.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
1.00
21
Trailing Matches
21
14.3%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.25
Rest days
82.42
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
0.43
PPG
0.86
14.3%
Win rate
14.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
42.9%
85.7%
Loss rate
42.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.43
Current Competition PPG
0.86
-1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.71
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.42
Portability PPG Range
0.87
47.67
Portability Score
56.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-57.77
PPG-0.11
GF0.15
GA0.15
PPG-0.43
PPG0.31
PPG-0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate14.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score2.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.57
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-9.24
Rest days-1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-57.77
Current Opponent ELO57.77
Current ELO Difference-115.5
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ska-khabarovsk

W
Ska-khabarovsk3–0Enisey24 Oct · home
Pick: Enisey 44% · missed
W
Ska-khabarovsk2–0Dinamo Kirov14 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Kirov 41% · missed
W
Znamya Noginsk0–4Ska-khabarovsk9 Sep · away
Pick: Ska-khabarovsk 36% · hit
L
Ska-khabarovsk0–2Torpedo Moskva30 Aug · home
Pick: Torpedo Moskva 59% · hit
L
Nizhny Novgorod4–2Ska-khabarovsk24 Aug · away
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 65% · hit

Leningradets

W
Leningradets2–0Luki-Energiya14 Oct · home
Pick: Leningradets 52% · hit
L
Leningradets0–1KAMAZ29 Aug · home
Pick: Leningradets 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ska-khabarovsk and Leningradets meet in First League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Petrovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Ska-khabarovsk win 34.9%, draw 26.0%, Leningradets win 39.1%. The pick is Leningradets win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.