ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town

Chesterfield Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yeovil Town Away · Elo 1,484
SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chesterfield win
Chesterfield winPick
44.3%
Draw
25.8%
Yeovil Town win
29.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%

How much we know

Chesterfield history85 matches
Yeovil Town history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chesterfield are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chesterfield are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,484. On rating alone Chesterfield would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Chesterfield score more

    1.39 goals a game over 85 matches for Chesterfield, against 1.17 over 83 for Yeovil Town.

  • Defences are close

    Chesterfield concede 1.34 a game, Yeovil Town 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Chesterfield matches, against 52% for Yeovil Town. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chesterfield
Yeovil Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.2
ELO
1483.9
85
ELO · Matches
83
1539.2
Current Team ELO
1483.9
1483.9
Current Opponent ELO
1539.2
55.29
Current ELO Difference
-55.29
0.58
Expected score
0.42
85
History Matches
83
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.71
Overperformance
48.95
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
1.70
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
83
1.48
PPG
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
33.7%
28.2%
Draw rate
19.3%
31.8%
Loss rate
47.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.8%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
44
1.60
PPG
1.09
42.9%
Win rate
31.8%
31.0%
Draw rate
13.6%
26.2%
Loss rate
54.5%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.3%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
42
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.17
78.8%
Scoring rate
71.1%
54.1%
BTTS rate
53.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.18
78.6%
Scoring rate
68.2%
54.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
85
History Matches
83
1.39
Goals Mean
1.17
1.12
Goals Std
1.03
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
37.6%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
16.5%
Scored 3+ rate
12.0%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.34
Goals against per game
1.39
69.4%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.41
69.0%
Conceding rate
79.5%
85
History Matches
83
1.34
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.40
Conceded Std
1.11
34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.0%
16.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.7%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
83
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.58
0.98
Stability score
5.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
82
25
Lead Matches
23
68.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.9%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.70
22
Trailing Matches
24
31.8%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.10
67
Normal Rest History Matches
62
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
13
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.94
55.18
Portability Score
60.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO55.29
PPG0.28
GF0.22
GA-0.04
PPG0.50
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate6.3%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-4.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate19.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.06
Portability Score-5.41
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.40
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO55.29
Current Opponent ELO-55.29
Current ELO Difference110.6
Expected score0.16
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chesterfield

L
Newport County4–1Chesterfield30 Oct · away
Pick: Newport County 42% · hit
W
Chesterfield5–1Crewe24 Oct · home
Pick: Crewe 39% · missed
D
Chesterfield1–1Colchester20 Oct · home
Pick: Chesterfield 41% · missed
L
Port Vale1–0Chesterfield17 Oct · away
Pick: Port Vale 40% · hit
D
Chesterfield1–1Gillingham1 Sep · home
Pick: Chesterfield 54% · missed

Yeovil Town

L
FC Halifax Town2–0Yeovil Town31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Halifax Town 41% · hit
W
AFC Hornchurch1–2Yeovil Town27 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 44% · missed
L
Yeovil Town1–2Altrincham24 Oct · home
Pick: Yeovil Town 48% · missed
D
Leatherhead3–3Yeovil Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Yeovil Town 47% · missed
W
Yeovil Town3–2Tamworth31 Aug · home
Pick: Yeovil Town 47% · hit

About this match

Chesterfield and Yeovil Town meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chesterfield win 44.3%, draw 25.8%, Yeovil Town win 29.9%. The pick is Chesterfield win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.4%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.