ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby

Stafford Rangers Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grimsby Away · Elo 1,598
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grimsby win
Stafford Rangers win
17.8%
Draw
25.7%
Grimsby winPick
56.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Stafford Rangers history50 matches
Grimsby history94 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Grimsby are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grimsby are rated 146 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,452. On rating alone Grimsby would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Grimsby score more

    1.36 goals a game over 50 matches for Stafford Rangers, against 1.57 over 94 for Grimsby.

  • Grimsby concede fewer

    Stafford Rangers concede 1.46 a game, Grimsby 1.17.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Stafford Rangers matches, against 52% for Grimsby. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stafford Rangers
Grimsby
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.9
ELO
1597.9
50
ELO · Matches
94
1451.9
Current Team ELO
1597.9
1597.9
Current Opponent ELO
1451.9
-146.0
Current ELO Difference
146.0
0.30
Expected score
0.70
50
History Matches
94
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
47.09
Overperformance
54.61
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
94
1.20
PPG
1.72
30.0%
Win rate
48.9%
30.0%
Draw rate
25.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
25.5%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.0%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
44
1.37
PPG
1.66
37.0%
Win rate
43.2%
25.9%
Draw rate
36.4%
37.0%
Loss rate
20.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
27
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.36
Goals for per game
1.57
70.0%
Scoring rate
77.7%
56.0%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.34
74.1%
Scoring rate
77.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
52.3%
50
History Matches
94
1.36
Goals Mean
1.57
1.41
Goals Std
1.36
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.7%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.7%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.46
Goals against per game
1.17
72.0%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.05
66.7%
Conceding rate
63.6%
50
History Matches
94
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.36
Conceded Std
1.06
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.6%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
94
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.77
0.88
Stability score
4.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
94
10
Lead Matches
35
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.86
11
Trailing Matches
22
27.3%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
94
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
115.7
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.89
40
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
7
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.77
Portability PPG Range
1.25
56.52
Portability Score
55.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
94
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-146.0
PPG-0.52
GF-0.21
GA0.29
PPG-0.29
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-44
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches-44
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches-44
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-44
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-3.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches-52
Lead Matches-25
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-52
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-5
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.48
Portability Score1.38
Rest days38.72
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Normal Rest History Matches-32
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-146.0
Current Opponent ELO146.0
Current ELO Difference-292.0
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-44
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stafford Rangers

D
Gateshead1–1Stafford Rangers17 Oct · away
Pick: Gateshead 63% · missed
W
Corby Town0–2Stafford Rangers29 Aug · away
Pick: Corby Town 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Grimsby

W
Grimsby5–2York31 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 39% · hit
W
Gillingham1–4Grimsby24 Oct · away
Pick: Grimsby 54% · hit
D
Rochdale2–2Grimsby20 Oct · away
Pick: Grimsby 38% · missed
L
Grimsby0–2Northampton17 Oct · home
Pick: Grimsby 56% · missed
D
Accrington ST2–2Grimsby1 Sep · away
Pick: Grimsby 49% · missed

About this match

Stafford Rangers and Grimsby meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Stafford Rangers win 17.8%, draw 25.7%, Grimsby win 56.5%. The pick is Grimsby win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.