ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Accrington ST vs Wycombe

Accrington ST Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wycombe Away · Elo 1,520
The Wham Stadium, Accrington Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wycombe win
Accrington ST win
34.3%
Draw
25.6%
Wycombe winPick
40.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.1%
No49.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Accrington ST history87 matches
Wycombe history91 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wycombe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wycombe are rated 66 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,453. On rating alone Wycombe would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Wycombe score more

    1.09 goals a game over 87 matches for Accrington ST, against 1.33 over 91 for Wycombe.

  • Wycombe concede fewer

    Accrington ST concede 1.26 a game, Wycombe 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Accrington ST matches, against 43% for Wycombe. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Accrington ST
Wycombe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1453.3
ELO
1519.7
87
ELO · Matches
91
1453.3
Current Team ELO
1519.7
1519.7
Current Opponent ELO
1453.3
-66.36
Current ELO Difference
66.36
0.41
Expected score
0.59
87
History Matches
91
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
48.83
Overperformance
50.64
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
87
Matches
91
1.18
PPG
1.40
29.9%
Win rate
37.4%
28.7%
Draw rate
27.5%
41.4%
Loss rate
35.2%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.6%
40.2%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
47
1.37
PPG
1.06
34.7%
Win rate
23.4%
32.7%
Draw rate
36.2%
32.7%
Loss rate
40.4%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
31.9%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.9%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
49
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.09
Goals for per game
1.33
63.2%
Scoring rate
72.5%
44.8%
BTTS rate
47.3%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.00
69.4%
Scoring rate
66.0%
49.0%
BTTS rate
46.8%
87
History Matches
91
1.09
Goals Mean
1.33
1.16
Goals Std
1.15
63.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
26.4%
Scored 2+ rate
37.4%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.7%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.12
71.3%
Conceding rate
67.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.23
69.4%
Conceding rate
72.3%
87
History Matches
91
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.08
Conceded Std
1.07
40.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.9%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.0%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
28.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.0%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
28.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
87
History Matches
91
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.66
1.29
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
91
29
Lead Matches
32
58.6%
Lead Win Rate
65.6%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.74
27
Trailing Matches
23
11.1%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
91
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
75
Normal Rest History Matches
73
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
8
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
11
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.67
51.49
Portability Score
69.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
87
Clean History Matches
91
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-66.36
PPG-0.21
GF-0.24
GA0.14
PPG0.30
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score0.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-17.72
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-66.36
Current Opponent ELO66.36
Current ELO Difference-132.7
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Accrington ST

D
Accrington ST1–1Northampton31 Oct · home
Pick: Accrington ST 41% · missed
W
Rochdale0–5Accrington ST24 Oct · away
Pick: Rochdale 45% · missed
D
York1–1Accrington ST20 Oct · away
Pick: York 54% · missed
W
Accrington ST3–1Gillingham17 Oct · home
Pick: Accrington ST 51% · hit
D
Accrington ST2–2Grimsby1 Sep · home
Pick: Grimsby 49% · missed

Wycombe

W
Wycombe2–0Burton Albion31 Oct · home
Pick: Wycombe 47% · hit
D
AFC Wimbledon1–1Wycombe24 Oct · away
Pick: Wycombe 42% · missed
D
Cambridge United2–2Wycombe20 Oct · away
Pick: Cambridge United 48% · missed
W
Wycombe2–0Notts County17 Oct · home
Pick: Wycombe 47% · hit
W
Wycombe4–1Bristol Rovers6 Oct · home
Pick: Wycombe 45% · hit

About this match

Accrington ST and Wycombe meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Wham Stadium, Accrington. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Accrington ST win 34.3%, draw 25.6%, Wycombe win 40.1%. The pick is Wycombe win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 50.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.