ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

Bristol Rovers Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cambridge United Away · Elo 1,587
Memorial Stadium, Bristol Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cambridge United win
Bristol Rovers win
32.0%
Draw
27.5%
Cambridge United winPick
40.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%

How much we know

Bristol Rovers history89 matches
Cambridge United history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cambridge United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cambridge United are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,506. On rating alone Cambridge United would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 89 matches for Bristol Rovers, against 1.38 over 90 for Cambridge United.

  • Cambridge United concede fewer

    Bristol Rovers concede 1.54 a game, Cambridge United 0.92.

  • Bristol Rovers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Bristol Rovers matches, against 42% for Cambridge United. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bristol Rovers
Cambridge United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.0
ELO
1587.2
89
ELO · Matches
90
1506.0
Current Team ELO
1587.2
1587.2
Current Opponent ELO
1506.0
-81.17
Current ELO Difference
81.17
0.39
Expected score
0.61
89
History Matches
90
0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
50.58
Overperformance
53.72
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
90
1.26
PPG
1.57
37.1%
Win rate
42.2%
14.6%
Draw rate
30.0%
48.3%
Loss rate
27.8%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
53.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.2%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
46
1.33
PPG
1.33
40.0%
Win rate
32.6%
13.3%
Draw rate
34.8%
46.7%
Loss rate
32.6%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
45
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.38
69.7%
Scoring rate
75.6%
51.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.13
71.1%
Scoring rate
69.6%
51.1%
BTTS rate
47.8%
89
History Matches
90
1.29
Goals Mean
1.38
1.16
Goals Std
1.13
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.8%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.54
Goals against per game
0.92
79.8%
Conceding rate
64.4%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.00
77.8%
Conceding rate
63.0%
89
History Matches
90
1.54
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.22
Conceded Std
0.88
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.1%
20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
20.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
20.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
90
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.49
8.95
Stability score
1.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
88
Eligible Matches
87
22
Lead Matches
31
59.1%
Lead Win Rate
71.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.78
28
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
88
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
72
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
11
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.15
54.84
Portability Score
56.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-81.17
PPG-0.31
GF-0.09
GA0.62
PPG0.01
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.62
Conceded Std0.33
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score7.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-2.02
Rest days0.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.23
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-81.17
Current Opponent ELO81.17
Current ELO Difference-162.3
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bristol Rovers

L
Fleetwood Town3–1Bristol Rovers31 Oct · away
Pick: Fleetwood Town 38% · hit
D
Bristol Rovers0–0Swindon Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol Rovers 43% · missed
L
Bristol Rovers1–2Salford City20 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol Rovers 49% · missed
L
Shrewsbury1–0Bristol Rovers17 Oct · away
Pick: Bristol Rovers 51% · missed
L
Wycombe4–1Bristol Rovers6 Oct · away
Pick: Wycombe 45% · hit

Cambridge United

W
Cambridge United6–0Brighton U213 Nov · home
Pick: Cambridge United 62% · hit
L
Leyton Orient3–0Cambridge United31 Oct · away
Pick: Leyton Orient 44% · hit
D
Sheffield Wednesday1–1Cambridge United27 Oct · away
Pick: Cambridge United 39% · missed
L
Cambridge United2–3Plymouth24 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 53% · missed
D
Cambridge United2–2Wycombe20 Oct · home
Pick: Cambridge United 48% · missed

About this match

Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Memorial Stadium, Bristol. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bristol Rovers win 32.0%, draw 27.5%, Cambridge United win 40.5%. The pick is Cambridge United win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.