ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Barnet vs Tranmere

Barnet Home · Elo 1,596
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tranmere Away · Elo 1,421
The Hive Stadium, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barnet win
Barnet winPick
57.5%
Draw
22.0%
Tranmere win
20.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Barnet history83 matches
Tranmere history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Barnet are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Barnet are rated 175 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,421. On rating alone Barnet would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Barnet score more

    1.76 goals a game over 83 matches for Barnet, against 1.23 over 77 for Tranmere.

  • Barnet concede fewer

    Barnet concede 1.06 a game, Tranmere 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Barnet matches, against 52% for Tranmere. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barnet
Tranmere
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1596.4
ELO
1421.4
83
ELO · Matches
77
1596.4
Current Team ELO
1421.4
1421.4
Current Opponent ELO
1596.4
175.0
Current ELO Difference
-175.0
0.73
Expected score
0.27
83
History Matches
77
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
54.66
Overperformance
46.70
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
77
1.81
PPG
1.06
50.6%
Win rate
26.0%
28.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
20.5%
Loss rate
45.5%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
55.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
35
1.74
PPG
1.06
46.5%
Win rate
25.7%
34.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
18.6%
Loss rate
45.7%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
43
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.76
Goals for per game
1.23
86.7%
Scoring rate
72.7%
59.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.91
Goals for per game
1.37
90.7%
Scoring rate
77.1%
67.4%
BTTS rate
65.7%
83
History Matches
77
1.76
Goals Mean
1.23
1.30
Goals Std
1.08
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
48.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.8%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
11.7%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.55
65.1%
Conceding rate
77.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.69
72.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
83
History Matches
77
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.55
0.99
Conceded Std
1.22
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.0%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
77
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.75
6.41
Stability score
2.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
77
30
Lead Matches
18
76.7%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.63
16
Trailing Matches
24
37.5%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
65
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
14
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.86
54.80
Portability Score
58.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO175.0
PPG0.74
GF0.53
GA-0.49
PPG0.69
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.53
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate14.0%
Scored 2+ rate14.4%
Scored 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score3.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate21.1%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate2.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-3.87
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.77
Current Team ELO175.0
Current Opponent ELO-175.0
Current ELO Difference350.0
Expected score0.46
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barnet

D
Crewe1–1Barnet31 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 37% · missed
D
Barnet1–1Oldham24 Oct · home
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed
L
Barnet1–3Swindon Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Barnet 55% · missed
W
Tranmere1–2Barnet17 Oct · away
Pick: Barnet 43% · hit
D
Exeter City1–1Barnet1 Sep · away
Pick: Barnet 50% · missed

Tranmere

W
Tranmere3–1Cheltenham31 Oct · home
Pick: Tranmere 48% · hit
D
Crawley Town1–1Tranmere24 Oct · away
Pick: Crawley Town 41% · missed
W
Northampton0–1Tranmere20 Oct · away
Pick: Tranmere 39% · hit
L
Tranmere1–2Barnet17 Oct · home
Pick: Barnet 43% · hit
D
Tranmere2–2Rotherham1 Sep · home
Pick: Tranmere 45% · missed

About this match

Barnet and Tranmere meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Hive Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Barnet win 57.5%, draw 22.0%, Tranmere win 20.5%. The pick is Barnet win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.