ScoreProb
Liga II Romania Round 13 2026

Chindia Targoviste vs Popești-Leordeni

Chindia Targoviste Home · Elo 1,520
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Popești-Leordeni Away · Elo 1,663
Stadionul Eugen Popescu, Targoviste Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chindia Targoviste win
Chindia Targoviste winPick
46.3%
Draw
24.1%
Popești-Leordeni win
29.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Chindia Targoviste history59 matches
Popești-Leordeni history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chindia Targoviste are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Popești-Leordeni are rated 143 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,663 against 1,520. On rating alone Popești-Leordeni would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Popești-Leordeni score more

    1.66 goals a game over 59 matches for Chindia Targoviste, against 2.06 over 47 for Popești-Leordeni.

  • Popești-Leordeni concede fewer

    Chindia Targoviste concede 1.31 a game, Popești-Leordeni 0.83.

  • Chindia Targoviste games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Chindia Targoviste matches, against 45% for Popești-Leordeni. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chindia Targoviste
Popești-Leordeni
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.4
ELO
1663.3
59
ELO · Matches
47
1520.4
Current Team ELO
1663.3
1663.3
Current Opponent ELO
1520.4
-142.9
Current ELO Difference
142.9
0.31
Expected score
0.69
59
History Matches
47
0.02
Residual Mean
0.17
51.58
Overperformance
62.25
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
47
1.47
PPG
2.26
40.7%
Win rate
66.0%
25.4%
Draw rate
27.7%
33.9%
Loss rate
6.4%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.8%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
22
1.52
PPG
2.14
45.2%
Win rate
59.1%
16.1%
Draw rate
36.4%
38.7%
Loss rate
4.5%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
45.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
31
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.66
Goals for per game
2.06
83.1%
Scoring rate
87.2%
59.3%
BTTS rate
48.9%
1.97
Goals for per game
2.14
87.1%
Scoring rate
86.4%
58.1%
BTTS rate
59.1%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
47
1.66
Goals Mean
2.06
1.27
Goals Std
1.55
83.1%
Scored 1+ rate
87.2%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
53.2%
25.4%
Scored 3+ rate
36.2%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
2.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
0.83
72.9%
Conceding rate
53.2%
1.35
Goals against per game
0.95
71.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
47
1.31
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.09
Conceded Std
0.93
40.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.4%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
1.35
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.8%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.8%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
47
0.98
Result entropy
0.73
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.65
1.62
Stability score
26.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
29
28
Lead Matches
11
60.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.88
15
Trailing Matches
5
20.0%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.02
Rest days
75.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.24
26
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.26
Portability PPG Range
0.64
84.22
Portability Score
63.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-142.9
PPG-0.78
GF-0.40
GA0.48
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.62
PPG0.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches12
Result entropy0.25
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-25.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches30
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score21.22
Rest days0.73
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-142.9
Current Opponent ELO142.9
Current ELO Difference-285.8
Expected score-0.39
History Matches12
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-10.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chindia Targoviste

W
Ştefăneşti0–3Chindia Targoviste31 Oct · away
Pick: Chindia Targoviste 46% · hit
L
Dinamo Bucuresti5–2Chindia Targoviste28 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Bucuresti 50% · hit
W
Chindia Targoviste3–2CSM Satu Mare25 Oct · home
Pick: Chindia Targoviste 64% · hit
W
ASA Targu Mures2–4Chindia Targoviste20 Oct · away
Pick: Chindia Targoviste 46% · hit
L
Chindia Targoviste0–1FC Voluntari1 Sep · home
Pick: FC Voluntari 40% · hit

Popești-Leordeni

W
Popești-Leordeni2–1Metalul Buzău31 Oct · home
Pick: Popești-Leordeni 49% · hit
W
CS Dinamo București1–2Popești-Leordeni24 Oct · away
Pick: Popești-Leordeni 58% · hit
W
Popești-Leordeni2–0CS Afumati17 Oct · home
Pick: Popești-Leordeni 63% · hit
D
Cetatea Suceava1–1Popești-Leordeni29 Aug · away
Pick: Popești-Leordeni 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chindia Targoviste and Popești-Leordeni meet in Liga II on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu, Targoviste. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Chindia Targoviste win 46.3%, draw 24.1%, Popești-Leordeni win 29.7%. The pick is Chindia Targoviste win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.