Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs UD San Pedro
Match result probability Model pick: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno winPick
48.1%
Draw
28.6%
UD San Pedro win
23.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.9%
No53.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%
How much we know
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno history49 matches
UD San Pedro history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Ciudad de Torredonjimeno are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
UD San Pedro are rated 28 Elo points higher
Elo 1,530 against 1,502. On rating alone UD San Pedro would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.12 goals a game over 49 matches for Ciudad de Torredonjimeno, against 1.09 over 33 for UD San Pedro.
-
UD San Pedro concede fewer
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno concede 1.20 a game, UD San Pedro 1.06.
-
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno games more often go over 2.5 goals
39% of Ciudad de Torredonjimeno matches, against 30% for UD San Pedro. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UD San Pedro@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1501.9
ELO
1529.6
49
ELO · Matches
33
1501.9
Current Team ELO
1529.6
1529.6
Current Opponent ELO
1501.9
-27.71
Current ELO Difference
27.71
0.46
Expected score
0.54
49
History Matches
33
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
49.68
Overperformance
52.65
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.66
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
33
1.41
PPG
1.42
36.7%
Win rate
36.4%
30.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
32.7%
Loss rate
30.3%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
30.3%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
12.1%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
17
1.52
PPG
1.00
43.5%
Win rate
23.5%
21.7%
Draw rate
29.4%
34.8%
Loss rate
47.1%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
29.4%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
23
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.12
Goals for per game
1.09
73.5%
Scoring rate
69.7%
46.9%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.06
78.3%
Scoring rate
70.6%
43.5%
BTTS rate
52.9%
49
History Matches
33
1.12
Goals Mean
1.09
0.92
Goals Std
0.93
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.06
67.3%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.59
56.5%
Conceding rate
82.4%
49
History Matches
33
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.05
Conceded Std
1.13
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
33
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.26
Stability score
0.25
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
33
11
Lead Matches
10
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
9
21.4%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
182.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
21
Long Rest History Matches
11
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.02
Portability PPG Std
—
0.05
Portability PPG Range
—
95.31
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-27.71
PPG-0.02
GF0.03
GA0.14
PPG0.52
PPG0.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate25.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate0.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches16
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score0.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.02
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO-27.71
Current Opponent ELO27.71
Current ELO Difference-55.43
Expected score-0.08
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
W
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno4–1Malaga City25 Oct · home
Pick: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 60% · hit W
Atletico de Marbella0–1Ciudad de Torredonjimeno4 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico de Marbella 35% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
UD San Pedro
L
Arenas Armilla1–0UD San Pedro25 Oct · away
Pick: Arenas Armilla 55% · hit L
UD San Pedro2–3Motril4 Oct · home
Pick: Motril 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and UD San Pedro meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win 48.1%, draw 28.6%, UD San Pedro win 23.3%. The pick is Ciudad de Torredonjimeno win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.