ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Spain Group 9 - 10 2026

Melilla vs Granada II

Melilla Home · Elo 1,453
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Granada II Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Melilla win
Melilla winPick
42.3%
Draw
26.6%
Granada II win
31.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Melilla history50 matches
Granada II history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Melilla are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,453 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.10 goals a game over 50 matches for Melilla, against 1.17 over 48 for Granada II.

  • Melilla concede fewer

    Melilla concede 1.26 a game, Granada II 1.48.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Melilla matches, against 46% for Granada II. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Melilla
Granada II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.6
ELO
1470.6
50
ELO · Matches
48
1452.6
Current Team ELO
1470.6
1470.6
Current Opponent ELO
1452.6
-18.03
Current ELO Difference
18.03
0.47
Expected score
0.53
50
History Matches
48
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
46.72
Overperformance
47.73
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
48
1.04
PPG
1.06
22.0%
Win rate
25.0%
38.0%
Draw rate
31.3%
40.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.64
PPG
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
44.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.17
64.0%
Scoring rate
60.4%
48.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.88
80.0%
Scoring rate
52.0%
52.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.10
Goals Mean
1.17
1.04
Goals Std
1.18
64.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.4%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.48
74.0%
Conceding rate
81.3%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.64
60.0%
Conceding rate
84.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.07
Conceded Std
1.00
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.1%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.17
Goal Difference Std
1.42
2.85
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
48
12
Lead Matches
11
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.79
13
Trailing Matches
15
23.1%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
36
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
13
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.77
83.33
Portability Score
56.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-18.03
PPG-0.02
GF-0.07
GA-0.22
PPG0.84
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate24.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score0.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score26.83
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO-18.03
Current Opponent ELO18.03
Current ELO Difference-36.06
Expected score-0.05
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Melilla

W
Melilla2–0Cantoria24 Oct · home
Pick: Melilla 64% · hit
W
Alhaurino1–2Melilla4 Oct · away
Pick: Alhaurino 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Granada II

D
Churriana Vega0–0Granada II25 Oct · away
Pick: Churriana Vega 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Melilla and Granada II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Melilla win 42.3%, draw 26.6%, Granada II win 31.0%. The pick is Melilla win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.