ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 Spain Group 9 - 10 2026

Mancha Real vs Atlético Porcuna

Mancha Real Home · Elo 1,454
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Porcuna Away · Elo 1,483
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Porcuna win
Mancha Real win
33.8%
Draw
29.8%
Atlético Porcuna winPick
36.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.2%
Under 2.556.8%

How much we know

Mancha Real history48 matches
Atlético Porcuna history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Atlético Porcuna are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlético Porcuna are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,454. On rating alone Atlético Porcuna would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.02 goals a game over 48 matches for Mancha Real, against 1.10 over 49 for Atlético Porcuna.

  • Defences are close

    Mancha Real concede 1.21 a game, Atlético Porcuna 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Mancha Real matches, against 45% for Atlético Porcuna. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mancha Real
Atlético Porcuna@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1453.5
ELO
1483.4
48
ELO · Matches
49
1453.5
Current Team ELO
1483.4
1483.4
Current Opponent ELO
1453.5
-29.86
Current ELO Difference
29.86
0.46
Expected score
0.54
48
History Matches
49
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.94
Overperformance
48.74
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
49
1.15
PPG
1.22
31.3%
Win rate
34.7%
20.8%
Draw rate
18.4%
47.9%
Loss rate
46.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
59.2%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.52
PPG
1.08
44.0%
Win rate
32.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
12.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
56.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
36.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.10
68.8%
Scoring rate
63.3%
41.7%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.88
80.0%
Scoring rate
52.0%
44.0%
BTTS rate
36.0%
48
History Matches
49
1.02
Goals Mean
1.10
0.90
Goals Std
1.07
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
4.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.12
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
1.31
64.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.48
56.0%
Conceding rate
76.0%
48
History Matches
49
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.14
Conceded Std
1.26
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
49
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.60
5.08
Stability score
5.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
49
10
Lead Matches
15
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.84
12
Trailing Matches
10
16.7%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
29
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
17
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.34
Portability PPG Range
0.24
74.42
Portability Score
80.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-29.86
PPG-0.08
GF-0.08
GA-0.10
PPG0.44
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-0.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.53
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score-6.19
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO-29.86
Current Opponent ELO29.86
Current ELO Difference-59.71
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mancha Real

D
Mancha Real0–0Alhaurino25 Oct · home
Pick: Mancha Real 46% · missed
L
Huétor Vega3–0Mancha Real4 Oct · away
Pick: Huétor Vega 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlético Porcuna

D
Marbelli0–0Atlético Porcuna25 Oct · away
Pick: Marbelli 45% · missed
L
Atlético Porcuna2–3Churriana Vega4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Porcuna 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mancha Real and Atlético Porcuna meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Mancha Real win 33.8%, draw 29.8%, Atlético Porcuna win 36.4%. The pick is Atlético Porcuna win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.2%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.