Huétor Vega vs Alhaurino
Match result probability Model pick: Huétor Vega win
Huétor Vega winPick
52.3%
Draw
25.1%
Alhaurino win
22.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.7%
No49.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%
How much we know
Huétor Vega history49 matches
Alhaurino history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Huétor Vega
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Huétor Vega are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,507 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Huétor Vega score more
1.37 goals a game over 49 matches for Huétor Vega, against 1.21 over 33 for Alhaurino.
-
Defences are close
Huétor Vega concede 1.27 a game, Alhaurino 1.18.
-
Huétor Vega games more often go over 2.5 goals
51% of Huétor Vega matches, against 42% for Alhaurino. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alhaurino@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1507.4
ELO
1496.2
49
ELO · Matches
33
1507.4
Current Team ELO
1496.2
1496.2
Current Opponent ELO
1507.4
11.22
Current ELO Difference
-11.22
0.52
Expected score
0.48
49
History Matches
33
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.61
Overperformance
49.46
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
33
1.47
PPG
1.30
40.8%
Win rate
33.3%
24.5%
Draw rate
30.3%
34.7%
Loss rate
36.4%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
17
1.56
PPG
0.94
40.0%
Win rate
23.5%
36.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
24.0%
Loss rate
52.9%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
25
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.21
77.6%
Scoring rate
69.7%
59.2%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.06
84.0%
Scoring rate
58.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
49
History Matches
33
1.37
Goals Mean
1.21
1.12
Goals Std
1.17
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.7%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.18
79.6%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.47
72.0%
Conceding rate
70.6%
49
History Matches
33
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.18
0.90
Conceded Std
1.00
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
20.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
33
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.42
1.92
Stability score
0.25
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
33
14
Lead Matches
11
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
8
33.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
182.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
16
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.60
Portability PPG Range
—
62.41
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO11.22
PPG0.17
GF0.16
GA0.08
PPG0.62
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches16
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate6.4%
Scored 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score1.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate7.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO11.22
Current Opponent ELO-11.22
Current ELO Difference22.45
Expected score0.03
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Huétor Vega
D
Huétor Vega0–0Torre del Mar25 Oct · home
Pick: Torre del Mar 37% · missed D
Atletico de Marbella2–2Huétor Vega18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit W
Huétor Vega3–0Mancha Real4 Oct · home
Pick: Huétor Vega 47% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Alhaurino
D
Mancha Real0–0Alhaurino25 Oct · away
Pick: Mancha Real 46% · missed L
Alhaurino1–2Melilla4 Oct · home
Pick: Alhaurino 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Huétor Vega and Alhaurino meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Huétor Vega win 52.3%, draw 25.1%, Alhaurino win 22.6%. The pick is Huétor Vega win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.