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Liga MX Mexico Round 7 2026

Club Queretaro vs Monterrey

Club Queretaro Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Monterrey Away · Elo 1,573
Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago Querétaro Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Monterrey win
Club Queretaro win
19.5%
Draw
22.6%
Monterrey winPick
57.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.9%
No49.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%

How much we know

Club Queretaro history43 matches
Monterrey history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Monterrey are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Monterrey are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,479. On rating alone Monterrey would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Monterrey score far more

    0.93 goals a game over 43 matches for Club Queretaro, against 1.83 over 75 for Monterrey.

  • Monterrey concede fewer

    Club Queretaro concede 1.42 a game, Monterrey 1.27.

  • Monterrey games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Club Queretaro matches, against 57% for Monterrey. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Club Queretaro
Monterrey@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.0
ELO
1572.9
43
ELO · Matches
75
1479.0
Current Team ELO
1572.9
1572.9
Current Opponent ELO
1479.0
-93.84
Current ELO Difference
93.84
0.37
Expected score
0.63
43
History Matches
75
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
47.52
Overperformance
53.80
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
75
1.07
PPG
1.67
27.9%
Win rate
48.0%
23.3%
Draw rate
22.7%
48.8%
Loss rate
29.3%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
39.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.3%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
37
1.28
PPG
1.41
33.3%
Win rate
37.8%
27.8%
Draw rate
27.0%
38.9%
Loss rate
35.1%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
18
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.93
Goals for per game
1.83
65.1%
Scoring rate
86.7%
48.8%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.62
83.3%
Scoring rate
78.4%
61.1%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
43
History Matches
75
0.93
Goals Mean
1.83
0.85
Goals Std
1.28
65.1%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
23.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
4.7%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.27
81.4%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.30
77.8%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
43
History Matches
75
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.13
Conceded Std
1.07
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
75
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.68
4.84
Stability score
4.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
74
9
Lead Matches
34
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.82
17
Trailing Matches
16
11.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.83
Rest days
84.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
10
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.90
22
Normal Rest History Matches
42
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.39
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.25
48.56
Portability Score
56.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-93.84
PPG-0.60
GF-0.90
GA0.15
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.13
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate21.6%
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-32
Goals Mean-0.90
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.66
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-32
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score0.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-25
Lead Win Rate1.3%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-7.53
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.90
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO-93.84
Current Opponent ELO93.84
Current ELO Difference-187.7
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-32
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Club Queretaro

L
FC Juarez3–1Club Queretaro31 Oct · away
Pick: Club Queretaro 39% · missed
L
Club Queretaro1–3Cruz Azul26 Oct · home
Pick: Cruz Azul 41% · hit
L
Atletico San Luis2–1Club Queretaro21 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico San Luis 42% · hit
L
Santos Laguna5–0Club Queretaro17 Oct · away
Pick: Club Queretaro 47% · missed
W
Atlas1–3Club Queretaro29 Aug · away
Pick: Atlas 52% · missed

Monterrey

W
Puebla1–4Monterrey22 Oct · away
Pick: Monterrey 47% · hit
W
Monterrey2–1CF Pachuca19 Oct · home
Pick: Monterrey 58% · hit
L
Monterrey1–3Atletico San Luis31 Aug · home
Pick: Monterrey 70% · missed
W
Monterrey2–1Chicago Fire26 Aug · home
Pick: Monterrey 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Club Queretaro and Monterrey meet in Liga MX on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio La Corregidora, Santiago Querétaro. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Club Queretaro win 19.5%, draw 22.6%, Monterrey win 57.8%. The pick is Monterrey win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.4%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.