ScoreProb
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 16 2026

Cosmos Koblenz vs Hertha Wiesbach

Cosmos Koblenz Home · Elo 1,475
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hertha Wiesbach Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cosmos Koblenz win
Cosmos Koblenz winPick
46.1%
Draw
20.3%
Hertha Wiesbach win
33.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.8%
Under 2.531.2%

How much we know

Cosmos Koblenz history40 matches
Hertha Wiesbach history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cosmos Koblenz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,475 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hertha Wiesbach score more

    1.50 goals a game over 40 matches for Cosmos Koblenz, against 2.00 over 35 for Hertha Wiesbach.

  • Cosmos Koblenz concede fewer

    Cosmos Koblenz concede 1.88 a game, Hertha Wiesbach 2.20.

  • Hertha Wiesbach games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Cosmos Koblenz matches, against 77% for Hertha Wiesbach. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cosmos Koblenz
Hertha Wiesbach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.5
ELO
1499.9
40
ELO · Matches
35
1475.5
Current Team ELO
1499.9
1499.9
Current Opponent ELO
1475.5
-24.44
Current ELO Difference
24.44
0.46
Expected score
0.54
40
History Matches
35
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
47.66
Overperformance
50.18
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
2.30
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
35
1.30
PPG
1.46
37.5%
Win rate
45.7%
17.5%
Draw rate
8.6%
45.0%
Loss rate
45.7%
92.5%
Over 1.5 rate
94.3%
67.5%
Over 2.5 rate
77.1%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
17
1.84
PPG
0.59
52.6%
Win rate
17.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
5.9%
21.1%
Loss rate
76.5%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
88.2%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
19
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
82.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
65.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.89
Goals for per game
1.53
94.7%
Scoring rate
76.5%
78.9%
BTTS rate
76.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
35
1.50
Goals Mean
2.00
1.05
Goals Std
1.24
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
45.7%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.88
Goals against per game
2.20
82.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.42
Goals against per game
2.88
84.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.25
Goals against per game
2.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
40
History Matches
35
1.88
Conceded Mean
2.20
1.42
Conceded Std
1.58
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.9%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.1%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
2.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
17.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
35
0.94
Result entropy
0.84
2.05
Goal Difference Std
1.94
6.05
Stability score
15.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
35
10
Lead Matches
10
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.80
16
Trailing Matches
12
12.5%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.69
Portability PPG Range
0.52
59.13
Portability Score
65.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.44
PPG-0.16
GF-0.50
GA-0.33
PPG-0.25
PPG1.25
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate15.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches5
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-9.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-6.83
Rest days7.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO-24.44
Current Opponent ELO24.44
Current ELO Difference-48.89
Expected score-0.07
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cosmos Koblenz

D
TuS Koblenz0–0Cosmos Koblenz31 Oct · away
Pick: TuS Koblenz 72% · missed
L
Cosmos Koblenz0–4Gau-Odernheim24 Oct · home
Pick: Gau-Odernheim 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hertha Wiesbach

W
Hertha Wiesbach3–2FV Engers 0731 Oct · home
Pick: FV Engers 07 61% · missed
L
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach4–2Hertha Wiesbach24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Emmelshausen-Karbach 52% · hit
L
Hertha Wiesbach0–2Schott Mainz17 Oct · home
Pick: Schott Mainz 56% · hit
L
RW Wittlich4–1Hertha Wiesbach29 Aug · away
Pick: RW Wittlich 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cosmos Koblenz and Hertha Wiesbach meet in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cosmos Koblenz win 46.1%, draw 20.3%, Hertha Wiesbach win 33.5%. The pick is Cosmos Koblenz win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.8%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.