ScoreProb
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 16 2026

Schott Mainz vs Diefflen

Schott Mainz Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Diefflen Away · Elo 1,465
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Schott Mainz win
Schott Mainz winPick
68.5%
Draw
12.9%
Diefflen win
18.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.0%
No32.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.580.5%
Under 2.519.5%

How much we know

Schott Mainz history59 matches
Diefflen history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Schott Mainz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Schott Mainz are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,465. On rating alone Schott Mainz would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Schott Mainz score more

    2.20 goals a game over 59 matches for Schott Mainz, against 1.88 over 52 for Diefflen.

  • Schott Mainz concede fewer

    Schott Mainz concede 1.78 a game, Diefflen 2.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    76% of Schott Mainz matches, against 81% for Diefflen. The model puts this match at 81% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schott Mainz
Diefflen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.6
ELO
1465.2
59
ELO · Matches
52
1499.6
Current Team ELO
1465.2
1465.2
Current Opponent ELO
1499.6
34.48
Current ELO Difference
-34.48
0.55
Expected score
0.45
59
History Matches
52
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.06
Overperformance
47.60
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.10
Goals against per game
2.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
52
1.49
PPG
1.15
45.8%
Win rate
30.8%
11.9%
Draw rate
23.1%
42.4%
Loss rate
46.2%
89.8%
Over 1.5 rate
96.2%
76.3%
Over 2.5 rate
80.8%
59.3%
Over 3.5 rate
69.2%
3.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.47
PPG
0.96
46.7%
Win rate
23.1%
6.7%
Draw rate
26.9%
46.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
61.5%
3.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.20
Goals for per game
1.88
78.0%
Scoring rate
84.6%
50.8%
BTTS rate
80.8%
2.53
Goals for per game
1.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.8%
53.3%
BTTS rate
80.8%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
52
2.20
Goals Mean
1.88
2.12
Goals Std
1.31
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
52.5%
Scored 2+ rate
57.7%
39.0%
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
2.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
2.42
67.8%
Conceding rate
96.2%
1.93
Goals against per game
2.54
73.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
52
1.78
Conceded Mean
2.42
1.76
Conceded Std
1.45
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.4%
28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
46.2%
1.93
Venue Conceded Mean
2.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
32.2%
Clean-sheet rate
3.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
52
0.89
Result entropy
0.96
3.30
Goal Difference Std
2.24
11.30
Stability score
3.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
52
22
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.67
24
Trailing Matches
20
12.5%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
1.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.98
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
14
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.80
Portability PPG Std
0.11
2.11
Portability PPG Range
0.24
38.44
Portability Score
81.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO34.48
PPG0.34
GF0.32
GA-0.64
PPG1.50
PPG0.51
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate26.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.81
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate8.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.90
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std1.06
Stability score7.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.23
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.33
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.69
Portability PPG Range1.88
Portability Score-43.40
Rest days-1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO34.48
Current Opponent ELO-34.48
Current ELO Difference68.95
Expected score0.10
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schott Mainz

W
Mechtersheim0–3Schott Mainz31 Oct · away
Pick: Schott Mainz 54% · hit
W
Schott Mainz3–1Wormatia Worms24 Oct · home
Pick: Schott Mainz 52% · hit
W
Hertha Wiesbach0–2Schott Mainz17 Oct · away
Pick: Schott Mainz 56% · hit
D
Gau-Odernheim1–1Schott Mainz4 Oct · away
Pick: Schott Mainz 50% · missed
D
TuS RW Koblenz1–1Schott Mainz29 Aug · away
Pick: TuS RW Koblenz 41% · missed

Diefflen

D
Diefflen1–1Ahrweiler24 Oct · home
Pick: Diefflen 63% · missed
L
Mechtersheim2–1Diefflen17 Oct · away
Pick: Mechtersheim 47% · hit
L
Elversberg II4–3Diefflen30 Aug · away
Pick: Elversberg II 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Schott Mainz and Diefflen meet in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Schott Mainz win 68.5%, draw 12.9%, Diefflen win 18.6%. The pick is Schott Mainz win. Over 2.5 goals: 80.5%. Both teams to score: 68.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.