ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World Semi-finals 2026

Crvena Zvezda U18 vs Bravo U19

Crvena Zvezda U18 Home · Elo 1,491
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bravo U19 Away · Elo 1,486
Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade Referee: I. Shumilov Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 win
Crvena Zvezda U18 winPick
73.4%
Draw
14.7%
Bravo U19 win
12.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.5%
Under 2.526.5%

How much we know

Crvena Zvezda U18 history10 matches
Bravo U19 history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Crvena Zvezda U18 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,491 against 1,486. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Crvena Zvezda U18 score far more

    1.20 goals a game over 10 matches for Crvena Zvezda U18, against 0.50 over 2 for Bravo U19.

  • Crvena Zvezda U18 concede fewer

    Crvena Zvezda U18 concede 1.50 a game, Bravo U19 4.00.

  • Bravo U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Crvena Zvezda U18 matches, against 100% for Bravo U19. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crvena Zvezda U18
Bravo U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.1
ELO
1486.4
10
ELO · Matches
2
1491.1
Current Team ELO
1486.4
1486.4
Current Opponent ELO
1491.1
4.68
Current ELO Difference
-4.68
0.51
Expected score
0.49
10
History Matches
2
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.33
49.15
Overperformance
46.97
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
0.80
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
1.80
Goals against per game
4.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.20
PPG
0.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.50
1.50
Goals against per game
4.00
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
4.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
10
Matches
2
1.20
PPG
0.00
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
30.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
1
1.67
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
6
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.20
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
10
History Matches
2
1.20
Goals Mean
0.50
1.47
Goals Std
0.50
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
30.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
4.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
4.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
10
History Matches
2
1.50
Conceded Mean
4.00
1.02
Conceded Std
0.00
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
10
History Matches
2
0.99
Result entropy
0.00
1.90
Goal Difference Std
0.50
0.88
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
2
1
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
3
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.50
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Normal Rest Points Per Match
73.77
Rest days
363.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
0
Normal Rest History Matches
0
6
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.21
Portability PPG Std
—
0.42
Portability PPG Range
—
70.59
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
10
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO4.68
PPG1.20
GF0.70
GA-2.50
PPG1.67
PPG0.80
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.97
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate30.0%
Scored 3+ rate30.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.97
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-2.50
Conceded Std1.02
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.50
Conceded 3+ rate-0.80
Venue Conceded Mean-2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.02
History Matches8
Result entropy0.99
Goal Difference Std1.40
Stability score-99.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.40
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches1
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.94
Second Half Goals For Mean0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.61
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-290.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match1.33
Current Team ELO4.68
Current Opponent ELO-4.68
Current ELO Difference9.37
Expected score0.01
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.31
Overperformance2.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Crvena Zvezda U18

W
Bravo U190–1Crvena Zvezda U1828 Oct · away
Pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 57% · hit
W
Crvena Zvezda U182–0Novi Pazar U1913 Oct · home
Pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 54% · hit
W
Jedinstvo U. U190–4Crvena Zvezda U187 Oct · away
Pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bravo U19

L
Bravo U190–1Crvena Zvezda U1828 Oct · home
Pick: Crvena Zvezda U18 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Crvena Zvezda U18 and Bravo U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Crvena Zvezda U18 win 73.4%, draw 14.7%, Bravo U19 win 12.0%. The pick is Crvena Zvezda U18 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.5%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.