ScoreProb
NB III - Southeast Hungary Southeast - 15 2026

Csepel vs Gyulai Termál

Csepel Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gyulai Termál Away · Elo 1,655
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gyulai Termál win
Csepel win
15.7%
Draw
18.0%
Gyulai Termál winPick
66.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.5%
No41.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.7%
Under 2.532.3%

How much we know

Csepel history12 matches
Gyulai Termál history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Gyulai Termál are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gyulai Termál are rated 111 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,655 against 1,544. On rating alone Gyulai Termál would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Gyulai Termál score more

    1.92 goals a game over 12 matches for Csepel, against 2.54 over 50 for Gyulai Termál.

  • Gyulai Termál concede fewer

    Csepel concede 1.67 a game, Gyulai Termál 0.80.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Csepel matches, against 66% for Gyulai Termál. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Csepel
Gyulai Termál
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.0
ELO
1654.8
12
ELO · Matches
50
1544.0
Current Team ELO
1654.8
1654.8
Current Opponent ELO
1544.0
-110.8
Current ELO Difference
110.8
0.35
Expected score
0.65
12
History Matches
50
0.15
Residual Mean
0.15
55.75
Overperformance
60.88
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
3.00
1.20
Goals for per game
4.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.70
2.20
Goals for per game
3.50
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
90.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.50
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
50
1.75
PPG
2.16
50.0%
Win rate
66.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
18.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
16.0%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.0%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
25
1.50
PPG
2.12
50.0%
Win rate
64.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
16.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
96.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
3.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
4
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
2.54
75.0%
Scoring rate
92.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
52.0%
2.25
Goals for per game
2.36
75.0%
Scoring rate
96.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
64.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
4.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
12
History Matches
50
1.92
Goals Mean
2.54
1.71
Goals Std
1.68
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
92.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
68.0%
41.7%
Scored 3+ rate
42.0%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
2.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
0.80
83.3%
Conceding rate
58.0%
2.75
Goals against per game
0.88
100.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
12
History Matches
50
1.67
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.25
Conceded Std
0.80
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.0%
2.75
Venue Conceded Mean
0.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
4.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
50
0.95
Result entropy
0.80
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.07
5.36
Stability score
20.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
12
Eligible Matches
47
3
Lead Matches
25
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
92.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.93
3
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.55
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
31
2.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
3
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.25
PPG
3.00
25.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.25
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.50
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.61
Portability PPG Range
1.08
62.22
Portability Score
52.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-110.8
PPG-0.41
GF-0.62
GA0.87
PPG-1.75
PPG-0.62
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-38
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate17.0%
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate21.0%
History Matches-38
Goals Mean-0.62
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches-38
Conceded Mean0.87
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Conceded 2+ rate30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Conceded Mean1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches-38
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-14.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-35
Lead Matches-22
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-35
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.75
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.47
Portability Score10.20
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.64
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.14
Current Team ELO-110.8
Current Opponent ELO110.8
Current ELO Difference-221.6
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-38
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-5.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Csepel

L
Újpest II2–0Csepel1 Nov · away
Pick: Újpest II 64% · hit
L
Csepel2–3Debreceni VSC28 Oct · home
Pick: Debreceni VSC 41% · hit
W
Csepel3–2Szolnoki MAV FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Csepel 43% · hit
W
Honvéd II1–3Csepel18 Oct · away
Pick: Csepel 41% · hit
L
Dabas1–0Csepel4 Oct · away
Pick: Dabas 58% · hit

Gyulai Termál

D
Gyulai Termál1–1ESMTK31 Oct · home
Pick: Gyulai Termál 51% · missed
W
III. Kerületi TUE0–1Gyulai Termál24 Oct · away
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 43% · missed
W
Gyulai Termál4–1Monori Se17 Oct · home
Pick: Gyulai Termál 56% · hit
W
Szeged-Csanád II0–4Gyulai Termál30 Aug · away
Pick: Gyulai Termál 56% · hit
W
Gyulai Termál1–0Vasas II26 Aug · home
Pick: Gyulai Termál 66% · hit

About this match

Csepel and Gyulai Termál meet in NB III - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Csepel win 15.7%, draw 18.0%, Gyulai Termál win 66.3%. The pick is Gyulai Termál win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.7%. Both teams to score: 58.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.