ScoreProb
NB III - Southeast Hungary Southeast - 15 2026

Hódmezővásárhely vs Újpest II

Hódmezővásárhely Home · Elo 1,473
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Újpest II Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Újpest II win
Hódmezővásárhely win
29.2%
Draw
21.0%
Újpest II winPick
49.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.1%
No37.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.2%
Under 2.531.8%

How much we know

Hódmezővásárhely history49 matches
Újpest II history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Újpest II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,473 against 1,480. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.47 goals a game over 49 matches for Hódmezővásárhely, against 1.59 over 54 for Újpest II.

  • Defences are close

    Hódmezővásárhely concede 1.80 a game, Újpest II 1.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Hódmezővásárhely matches, against 67% for Újpest II. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hódmezővásárhely
Újpest II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.5
ELO
1480.3
49
ELO · Matches
54
1472.5
Current Team ELO
1480.3
1480.3
Current Opponent ELO
1472.5
-7.81
Current ELO Difference
7.81
0.49
Expected score
0.51
49
History Matches
54
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.89
Overperformance
49.31
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
2.20
2.50
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.94
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
54
1.27
PPG
1.13
34.7%
Win rate
29.6%
22.4%
Draw rate
24.1%
42.9%
Loss rate
46.3%
81.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
65.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
44.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.6%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.50
PPG
0.84
45.8%
Win rate
24.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
12.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
64.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
52.0%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.47
Goals for per game
1.59
73.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
61.2%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.79
Goals for per game
1.56
83.3%
Scoring rate
76.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
68.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
3.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
49
History Matches
54
1.47
Goals Mean
1.59
1.40
Goals Std
1.39
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
22.4%
Scored 3+ rate
22.2%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.72
83.7%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.71
Goals against per game
2.20
83.3%
Conceding rate
88.0%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
54
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.47
Conceded Std
1.37
49.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.6%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
2.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
54
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.95
2.99
Stability score
3.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
49
14
Lead Matches
13
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.74
14
Trailing Matches
20
14.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.85
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
17
Long Rest History Matches
26
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
1.75
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.68
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.75
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.06
47.79
Portability Score
54.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-7.81
PPG0.14
GF-0.12
GA0.07
PPG-1.25
PPG0.66
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.84
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-0.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate2.2%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-7.15
Rest days0.73
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-7.81
Current Opponent ELO7.81
Current ELO Difference-15.62
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hódmezővásárhely

W
Szolnoki MAV FC1–2Hódmezővásárhely31 Oct · away
Pick: Szolnoki MAV FC 46% · missed
D
Hódmezővásárhely2–2Honvéd II24 Oct · home
Pick: Hódmezővásárhely 43% · missed
L
Szegedi VSE2–1Hódmezővásárhely17 Oct · away
Pick: Szegedi VSE 50% · hit
D
Szeged-Csanád II1–1Hódmezővásárhely4 Oct · away
Pick: Szeged-Csanád II 52% · missed
D
BKV Előre2–2Hódmezővásárhely30 Aug · away
Pick: Hódmezővásárhely 54% · missed

Újpest II

W
Újpest II2–0Csepel1 Nov · home
Pick: Újpest II 64% · hit
L
ESMTK2–1Újpest II25 Oct · away
Pick: ESMTK 52% · hit
D
Újpest II0–0III. Kerületi TUE18 Oct · home
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 53% · missed
W
Dabas1–2Újpest II30 Aug · away
Pick: Újpest II 41% · hit
D
Újpest II2–2Szeged-Csanád II26 Aug · home
Pick: Újpest II 43% · missed

About this match

Hódmezővásárhely and Újpest II meet in NB III - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hódmezővásárhely win 29.2%, draw 21.0%, Újpest II win 49.9%. The pick is Újpest II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.2%. Both teams to score: 62.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.