ScoreProb
NB III - Southeast Hungary Southeast - 15 2026

Sándorfalva vs Honvéd II

Sándorfalva Home · Elo 1,464
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Honvéd II Away · Elo 1,472
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Honvéd II win
Sándorfalva win
23.3%
Draw
25.8%
Honvéd II winPick
50.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Sándorfalva history6 matches
Honvéd II history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Honvéd II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,464 against 1,472. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Honvéd II score more

    0.83 goals a game over 6 matches for Sándorfalva, against 1.17 over 48 for Honvéd II.

  • Honvéd II concede fewer

    Sándorfalva concede 3.33 a game, Honvéd II 1.44.

  • Sándorfalva games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of Sándorfalva matches, against 52% for Honvéd II. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sándorfalva
Honvéd II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.3
ELO
1472.5
6
ELO · Matches
48
1464.3
Current Team ELO
1472.5
1472.5
Current Opponent ELO
1464.3
-8.21
Current ELO Difference
8.21
0.49
Expected score
0.51
6
History Matches
48
-0.27
Residual Mean
-0.03
43.88
Overperformance
47.76
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
3.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
6
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.70
0.83
Goals for per game
0.60
3.33
Goals against per game
2.00
16.7%
Win rate
20.0%
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
3.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
2.21
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.48
0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
48
0.50
PPG
1.17
16.7%
Win rate
29.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
83.3%
Loss rate
41.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
25
0.75
PPG
0.96
25.0%
Win rate
24.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
52.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
4
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.83
Goals for per game
1.17
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
54.2%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.04
75.0%
Scoring rate
56.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.75
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
6
History Matches
48
0.83
Goals Mean
1.17
0.69
Goals Std
1.11
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
0.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.33
Goals against per game
1.44
83.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.68
75.0%
Conceding rate
92.0%
3.75
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
48
3.33
Conceded Mean
1.44
2.21
Conceded Std
1.02
83.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.6%
66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
48
0.41
Result entropy
0.99
2.43
Goal Difference Std
1.56
58.99
Stability score
1.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
46
1
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
4
Trailing Matches
14
0.0%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
1.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
1.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
80.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
2
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
0.25
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
0.25
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
3
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.48
—
Portability PPG Range
1.15
—
Portability Score
51.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-8.21
PPG-0.67
GF-0.33
GA1.90
PPG0.50
PPG-0.21
PPG0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-42
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-42
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-42
Conceded Mean1.90
Conceded Std1.19
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate43.8%
Conceded 3+ rate47.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.73
History Matches-42
Result entropy-0.58
Goal Difference Std0.87
Stability score57.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.81
Eligible Matches-40
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-40
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-2.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-23
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.96
Current Team ELO-8.21
Current Opponent ELO8.21
Current ELO Difference-16.42
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-42
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-3.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sándorfalva

D
Szegedi VSE1–1Sándorfalva31 Oct · away
Pick: Szegedi VSE 74% · missed
D
Sándorfalva0–0Dabas24 Oct · home
Pick: Dabas 64% · missed
L
Szeged-Csanád II2–0Sándorfalva18 Oct · away
Pick: Szeged-Csanád II 80% · hit
L
Sándorfalva1–5Csepel29 Aug · home
Pick: Csepel 76% · hit
L
ESMTK3–0Sándorfalva26 Aug · away
Pick: ESMTK 92% · hit

Honvéd II

W
Honvéd II5–1BKV Előre1 Nov · home
Pick: Honvéd II 61% · hit
D
Hódmezővásárhely2–2Honvéd II24 Oct · away
Pick: Hódmezővásárhely 43% · missed
L
Honvéd II1–3Csepel18 Oct · home
Pick: Csepel 41% · hit
W
Honvéd II1–0III. Kerületi TUE4 Oct · home
Pick: III. Kerületi TUE 63% · missed
D
Honvéd II1–1Monori Se30 Aug · home
Pick: Monori Se 51% · missed

About this match

Sándorfalva and Honvéd II meet in NB III - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sándorfalva win 23.3%, draw 25.8%, Honvéd II win 50.9%. The pick is Honvéd II win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.