ScoreProb
2. SNL Slovenia Round 14 2026

Dekani vs Bistrica

Dekani Home · Elo 1,432
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bistrica Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dekani win
Dekani winPick
51.0%
Draw
21.3%
Bistrica win
27.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

Dekani history53 matches
Bistrica history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dekani are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bistrica are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,508 against 1,432. On rating alone Bistrica would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Bistrica score far more

    1.25 goals a game over 53 matches for Dekani, against 2.09 over 56 for Bistrica.

  • Bistrica concede fewer

    Dekani concede 1.79 a game, Bistrica 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Dekani matches, against 64% for Bistrica. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dekani
Bistrica@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1432.0
ELO
1507.8
53
ELO · Matches
56
1432.0
Current Team ELO
1507.8
1507.8
Current Opponent ELO
1432.0
-75.85
Current ELO Difference
75.85
0.39
Expected score
0.61
53
History Matches
56
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
45.65
Overperformance
49.94
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
3.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
1.70
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.72
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
56
1.02
PPG
1.52
26.4%
Win rate
42.9%
22.6%
Draw rate
23.2%
50.9%
Loss rate
33.9%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
56.6%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
30
1.22
PPG
1.30
37.0%
Win rate
33.3%
11.1%
Draw rate
30.0%
51.9%
Loss rate
36.7%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.3%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
27
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
2.09
62.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
49.1%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
74.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
55.6%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
53
History Matches
56
1.25
Goals Mean
2.09
1.24
Goals Std
2.74
62.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
53.6%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.79
Goals against per game
1.38
81.1%
Conceding rate
64.3%
1.89
Goals against per game
1.33
81.5%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
56
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.58
Conceded Std
1.42
50.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
1.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
37.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
2.04
Goal Difference Std
3.23
6.10
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
56
12
Lead Matches
19
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.91
24
Trailing Matches
14
16.7%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.17
Rest days
76.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.74
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.70
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.86
39.95
Portability Score
41.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-75.85
PPG-0.50
GF-0.84
GA0.42
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.08
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.84
Goals Std-1.50
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.23
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-1.19
Stability score3.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.93
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-1.61
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-75.85
Current Opponent ELO75.85
Current ELO Difference-151.7
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dekani

L
Dravinja1–0Dekani31 Oct · away
Pick: Dekani 39% · missed
D
Dekani0–0Brežice27 Oct · home
Pick: Dekani 62% · missed
L
Triglav1–0Dekani16 Oct · away
Pick: Triglav 58% · hit
L
Bilje2–0Dekani6 Oct · away
Pick: Bilje 39% · hit
D
Krško0–0Dekani29 Aug · away
Pick: Krško 41% · missed

Bistrica

W
Bistrica2–0Krško1 Nov · home
Pick: Bistrica 65% · hit
W
Jesenice1–3Bistrica28 Oct · away
Pick: Jesenice 41% · missed
W
Bistrica4–3Bilje23 Oct · home
Pick: Bistrica 59% · hit
W
Bistrica1–0Primorje17 Oct · home
Pick: Bistrica 56% · hit
W
Bistrica3–1Rudar4 Oct · home
Pick: Bistrica 43% · hit

About this match

Dekani and Bistrica meet in 2. SNL on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Dekani win 51.0%, draw 21.3%, Bistrica win 27.7%. The pick is Dekani win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.