ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios

Deportes Tolima Home · Elo 1,550
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Millonarios Away · Elo 1,536
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportes Tolima win
Deportes Tolima winPick
41.0%
Draw
28.4%
Millonarios win
30.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.4%
Under 2.552.6%

How much we know

Deportes Tolima history77 matches
Millonarios history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 23:10 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Deportes Tolima are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,550 against 1,536. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Millonarios score more

    1.19 goals a game over 77 matches for Deportes Tolima, against 1.39 over 76 for Millonarios.

  • Deportes Tolima concede fewer

    Deportes Tolima concede 0.95 a game, Millonarios 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Deportes Tolima matches, against 46% for Millonarios. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.1
ELO
1536.2
77
ELO · Matches
76
1550.1
Current Team ELO
1536.2
1536.2
Current Opponent ELO
1550.1
13.88
Current ELO Difference
-13.88
0.52
Expected score
0.48
77
History Matches
76
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.85
Overperformance
52.24
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.24
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
76
1.51
PPG
1.50
42.9%
Win rate
40.8%
22.1%
Draw rate
27.6%
35.1%
Loss rate
31.6%
59.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
40.3%
Over 2.5 rate
46.1%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
36
1.83
PPG
1.17
55.0%
Win rate
30.6%
17.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.5%
Loss rate
44.4%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
42.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
40
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.39
64.9%
Scoring rate
71.1%
39.0%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.36
70.0%
Scoring rate
69.4%
37.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.47
73.1%
Scoring rate
84.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
77
History Matches
76
1.19
Goals Mean
1.39
1.11
Goals Std
1.37
64.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
10.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.95
Goals against per game
1.07
59.7%
Conceding rate
63.2%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.39
55.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.11
65.4%
Conceding rate
63.2%
77
History Matches
76
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.02
Conceded Std
0.98
22.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.9%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
45.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
76
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.53
3.14
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
76
24
Lead Matches
22
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.86
19
Trailing Matches
16
26.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.09
Rest days
78.11
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.38
45
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
19
1.58
PPG
1.42
42.3%
Win rate
36.8%
30.8%
Draw rate
31.6%
26.9%
Loss rate
31.6%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
26
Current Competition Matches
19
1.58
Current Competition PPG
1.42
0.31
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.37
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.43
Portability PPG Range
2.50
73.36
Portability Score
39.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.88
PPG0.01
GF-0.20
GA-0.12
PPG0.16
PPG0.66
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.37
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score1.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.37
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches7
Current Competition PPG0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.06
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.57
Portability PPG Range-2.07
Portability Score33.45
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO13.88
Current Opponent ELO-13.88
Current ELO Difference27.76
Expected score0.04
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportes Tolima

W
Deportivo Pereira1–3Deportes Tolima3 Nov · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 43% · hit
L
Deportes Tolima0–1Deportivo Pasto26 Oct · home
Pick: Deportes Tolima 54% · missed
L
Águilas Doradas2–1Deportes Tolima18 Oct · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 39% · missed
W
Deportes Tolima2–1Cucuta1 Sep · home
Pick: Deportes Tolima 57% · hit
L
Independiente del Valle3–1Deportes Tolima26 Aug · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · hit

Millonarios

D
Millonarios1–1Once Caldas21 Oct · home
Pick: Millonarios 49% · missed
D
Millonarios0–0Internacional de Bogota30 Aug · home
Pick: Millonarios 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportes Tolima and Millonarios meet in Primera A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 23:10 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Deportes Tolima win 41.0%, draw 28.4%, Millonarios win 30.6%. The pick is Deportes Tolima win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.4%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.