ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto

Santa Fe Home · Elo 1,596
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Pasto Away · Elo 1,470
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santa Fe win
Santa Fe winPick
57.9%
Draw
25.0%
Deportivo Pasto win
17.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Santa Fe history75 matches
Deportivo Pasto history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Santa Fe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Santa Fe are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,470. On rating alone Santa Fe would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Santa Fe score more

    1.39 goals a game over 75 matches for Santa Fe, against 1.18 over 57 for Deportivo Pasto.

  • Santa Fe concede fewer

    Santa Fe concede 0.99 a game, Deportivo Pasto 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Santa Fe matches, against 49% for Deportivo Pasto. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santa Fe
Deportivo Pasto
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1596.4
ELO
1470.5
75
ELO · Matches
57
1596.4
Current Team ELO
1470.5
1470.5
Current Opponent ELO
1596.4
126.0
Current ELO Difference
-126.0
0.67
Expected score
0.33
75
History Matches
57
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.03
56.08
Overperformance
47.93
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.60
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
0.50
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
57
1.60
PPG
1.28
41.3%
Win rate
36.8%
36.0%
Draw rate
17.5%
22.7%
Loss rate
45.6%
74.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
45.3%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
29
1.79
PPG
0.76
48.8%
Win rate
17.2%
32.6%
Draw rate
24.1%
18.6%
Loss rate
58.6%
79.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
20.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
43
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.18
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.2%
56.0%
BTTS rate
42.1%
1.58
Goals for per game
0.83
83.7%
Scoring rate
48.3%
55.8%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.20
87.0%
Scoring rate
65.0%
69.6%
BTTS rate
45.0%
75
History Matches
57
1.39
Goals Mean
1.18
1.22
Goals Std
1.13
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.2%
36.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.8%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.99
Goals against per game
1.28
64.0%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.52
60.5%
Conceding rate
86.2%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.30
73.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
75
History Matches
57
0.99
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.01
Conceded Std
0.97
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
51.7%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
51.7%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
57
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.59
2.66
Stability score
6.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
57
25
Lead Matches
20
56.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.85
12
Trailing Matches
21
41.7%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
76.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
26
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
20
1.57
PPG
1.50
34.8%
Win rate
45.0%
52.2%
Draw rate
15.0%
13.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
23
Current Competition Matches
20
1.57
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.61
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.10
7
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.32
Portability PPG Range
0.75
78.07
Portability Score
61.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO126.0
PPG0.32
GF0.21
GA-0.29
PPG0.07
PPG1.03
PPG1.60
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate16.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches18
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-3.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate27.4%
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.71
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score16.18
Rest days0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches11
Short Rest Points Per Match1.83
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO126.0
Current Opponent ELO-126.0
Current ELO Difference251.9
Expected score0.35
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.47

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santa Fe

L
Santa Fe0–2Once Caldas2 Nov · home
Pick: Santa Fe 39% · missed
L
Atletico Nacional2–0Santa Fe30 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 50% · hit
W
Santa Fe2–1Bucaramanga27 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Fe 49% · hit
L
Llaneros1–0Santa Fe18 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Fe 40% · missed
W
Independiente Medellin0–1Santa Fe6 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Fe 39% · hit

Deportivo Pasto

W
Deportivo Pasto2–0Jaguares3 Nov · home
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 48% · hit
L
Bucaramanga2–1Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · away
Pick: Bucaramanga 51% · hit
W
Deportes Tolima0–1Deportivo Pasto26 Oct · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 54% · missed
L
Atletico Nacional3–0Deportivo Pasto23 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 70% · hit
L
Deportivo Pasto0–1Alianza Valledupar20 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 50% · missed

About this match

Santa Fe and Deportivo Pasto meet in Primera A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Santa Fe win 57.9%, draw 25.0%, Deportivo Pasto win 17.1%. The pick is Santa Fe win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.