ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Jaguares vs Bucaramanga

Jaguares Home · Elo 1,510
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bucaramanga Away · Elo 1,520
Estadio Jaraguay, Monteria Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bucaramanga win
Jaguares win
33.5%
Draw
24.0%
Bucaramanga winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

Jaguares history56 matches
Bucaramanga history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:05 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bucaramanga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,520. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 56 matches for Jaguares, against 1.30 over 70 for Bucaramanga.

  • Defences are close

    Jaguares concede 1.04 a game, Bucaramanga 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Jaguares matches, against 49% for Bucaramanga. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jaguares
Bucaramanga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1509.9
ELO
1519.9
56
ELO · Matches
70
1509.9
Current Team ELO
1519.9
1519.9
Current Opponent ELO
1509.9
-10.02
Current ELO Difference
10.02
0.49
Expected score
0.51
56
History Matches
70
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
50.19
Overperformance
50.59
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
70
1.64
PPG
1.49
48.2%
Win rate
38.6%
19.6%
Draw rate
32.9%
32.1%
Loss rate
28.6%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
37
2.00
PPG
1.32
63.0%
Win rate
35.1%
11.1%
Draw rate
27.0%
25.9%
Loss rate
37.8%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
14.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.5%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
27
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.30
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.05
92.6%
Scoring rate
70.3%
37.0%
BTTS rate
54.1%
0.82
Goals for per game
1.20
58.8%
Scoring rate
70.0%
35.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
56
History Matches
70
1.27
Goals Mean
1.30
0.99
Goals Std
1.25
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
39.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
10.7%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.07
57.1%
Conceding rate
62.9%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.14
44.4%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.10
76.5%
Conceding rate
70.0%
56
History Matches
70
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.12
Conceded Std
1.05
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
70
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.69
5.68
Stability score
0.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
69
18
Lead Matches
22
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.89
12
Trailing Matches
15
8.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
25
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
29
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
20
0.82
PPG
1.25
23.5%
Win rate
25.0%
11.8%
Draw rate
50.0%
64.7%
Loss rate
25.0%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
17
Current Competition Matches
20
0.82
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.94
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.10
3
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.29
Portability PPG Range
1.09
46.67
Portability Score
55.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-10.02
PPG0.16
GF-0.03
GA-0.04
PPG-0.43
PPG0.68
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate5.0%
Scored 2+ rate3.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score4.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate2.5%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.04
Competition Season Count-6
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-8.53
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-10.02
Current Opponent ELO10.02
Current ELO Difference-20.05
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jaguares

L
Deportivo Pasto2–0Jaguares3 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo Pasto 48% · hit
L
Deportivo Pereira1–0Jaguares30 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pereira 44% · hit
W
Jaguares1–0Llaneros26 Oct · home
Pick: Jaguares 44% · hit
D
Jaguares2–2America de Cali29 Aug · home
Pick: America de Cali 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bucaramanga

D
Bucaramanga1–1Atletico Nacional3 Nov · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 42% · missed
W
Bucaramanga2–1Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · home
Pick: Bucaramanga 51% · hit
L
Santa Fe2–1Bucaramanga27 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Fe 49% · hit
L
Chico1–0Bucaramanga23 Oct · away
Pick: Bucaramanga 49% · missed
D
Bucaramanga1–1America de Cali18 Oct · home
Pick: America de Cali 38% · missed

About this match

Jaguares and Bucaramanga meet in Primera A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:05 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Jaraguay, Monteria. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Jaguares win 33.5%, draw 24.0%, Bucaramanga win 42.5%. The pick is Bucaramanga win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.