ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia 2026

Junior vs Cucuta

Junior Home · Elo 1,522
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cucuta Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Junior win
Junior winPick
50.4%
Draw
26.2%
Cucuta win
23.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.4%
No46.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%

How much we know

Junior history72 matches
Cucuta history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 23:10 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Junior are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,518. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.22 goals a game over 72 matches for Junior, against 1.31 over 67 for Cucuta.

  • Defences are close

    Junior concede 1.22 a game, Cucuta 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Junior matches, against 45% for Cucuta. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Junior
Cucuta
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.2
ELO
1517.7
72
ELO · Matches
67
1522.2
Current Team ELO
1517.7
1517.7
Current Opponent ELO
1522.2
4.54
Current ELO Difference
-4.54
0.51
Expected score
0.49
72
History Matches
67
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
50.36
Overperformance
51.59
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.49
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
67
1.39
PPG
1.55
36.1%
Win rate
40.3%
30.6%
Draw rate
34.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.4%
76.4%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
1.50
PPG
1.13
37.5%
Win rate
26.7%
37.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.22
Goals for per game
1.31
76.4%
Scoring rate
77.6%
54.2%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.41
Goals for per game
0.97
78.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
59.4%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.14
75.0%
Scoring rate
77.3%
54.2%
BTTS rate
63.6%
72
History Matches
67
1.22
Goals Mean
1.31
0.95
Goals Std
1.03
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.5%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.21
73.6%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.82
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
72
History Matches
67
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.97
Conceded Std
1.18
38.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.4%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
67
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.65
0.21
Stability score
1.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
67
26
Lead Matches
22
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.82
21
Trailing Matches
14
23.8%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.91
Rest days
77.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
27
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
22
1.38
PPG
0.95
37.5%
Win rate
18.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
40.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
40.9%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
24
Current Competition Matches
22
1.38
Current Competition PPG
0.95
0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.68
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.02
Portability PPG Range
1.28
56.53
Portability Score
47.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.54
PPG-0.16
GF-0.09
GA0.01
PPG0.42
PPG0.37
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.71
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-1.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.72
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score9.33
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO4.54
Current Opponent ELO-4.54
Current ELO Difference9.08
Expected score0.01
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Junior

L
Llaneros3–2Junior31 Oct · away
Pick: Llaneros 38% · hit
D
Chico1–1Junior28 Oct · away
Pick: Junior 47% · missed
W
Junior1–0Águilas Doradas24 Oct · home
Pick: Junior 48% · hit
D
Deportivo Cali0–0Junior19 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Cali 45% · missed
D
Junior1–1Deportivo Pereira14 Oct · home
Pick: Junior 52% · missed

Cucuta

L
Cucuta0–2Águilas Doradas27 Oct · home
Pick: Cucuta 45% · missed
L
America de Cali3–1Cucuta24 Oct · away
Pick: America de Cali 63% · hit
W
Cucuta1–0Atletico Nacional20 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 51% · missed
W
Cucuta4–0Deportivo Pereira4 Oct · home
Pick: Cucuta 47% · hit
L
Deportes Tolima2–1Cucuta1 Sep · away
Pick: Deportes Tolima 57% · hit

About this match

Junior and Cucuta meet in Primera A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 23:10 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Junior win 50.4%, draw 26.2%, Cucuta win 23.4%. The pick is Junior win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.6%. Both teams to score: 53.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.