ScoreProb
Third League - Southeast Bulgaria Southeast - 14 2026

Rodopa Smolyan vs Botev Plovdiv II

Rodopa Smolyan Home · Elo 1,502
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Botev Plovdiv II Away · Elo 1,449
Stadion Septemvri, Smolyan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rodopa Smolyan win
Rodopa Smolyan winPick
61.9%
Draw
17.7%
Botev Plovdiv II win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.0%
Under 2.537.0%

How much we know

Rodopa Smolyan history51 matches
Botev Plovdiv II history21 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Rodopa Smolyan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rodopa Smolyan are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,449. On rating alone Rodopa Smolyan would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Rodopa Smolyan score more

    1.63 goals a game over 51 matches for Rodopa Smolyan, against 1.19 over 21 for Botev Plovdiv II.

  • Rodopa Smolyan concede fewer

    Rodopa Smolyan concede 1.59 a game, Botev Plovdiv II 1.86.

  • Rodopa Smolyan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Rodopa Smolyan matches, against 52% for Botev Plovdiv II. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rodopa Smolyan
Botev Plovdiv II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.9
ELO
1449.1
51
ELO · Matches
21
1501.9
Current Team ELO
1449.1
1449.1
Current Opponent ELO
1501.9
52.78
Current ELO Difference
-52.78
0.58
Expected score
0.42
51
History Matches
21
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.12
50.02
Overperformance
43.66
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.10
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.30
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
21
1.43
PPG
0.90
41.2%
Win rate
23.8%
19.6%
Draw rate
19.0%
39.2%
Loss rate
57.1%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
43.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
11
1.64
PPG
0.55
48.0%
Win rate
18.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
32.0%
Loss rate
81.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
52.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
25
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.19
72.5%
Scoring rate
57.1%
54.9%
BTTS rate
38.1%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.00
76.0%
Scoring rate
54.5%
56.0%
BTTS rate
36.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
51
History Matches
21
1.63
Goals Mean
1.19
1.43
Goals Std
1.22
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
49.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
25.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.59
Goals against per game
1.86
74.5%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.32
Goals against per game
2.55
72.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
51
History Matches
21
1.59
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.33
Conceded Std
1.67
49.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.1%
23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.8%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
2.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
21
0.96
Result entropy
0.89
2.20
Goal Difference Std
2.03
4.25
Stability score
11.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
21
3
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
6
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.14
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
75.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.22
15
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.69
Portability PPG Range
0.45
63.77
Portability Score
68.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
21
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO52.78
PPG0.53
GF0.44
GA-0.27
PPG0.67
PPG1.09
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches30
Goals Mean0.44
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate15.4%
Scored 2+ rate6.2%
Scored 3+ rate11.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches30
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-1.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches30
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-6.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-5.15
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.37
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Current Team ELO52.78
Current Opponent ELO-52.78
Current ELO Difference105.6
Expected score0.15
History Matches30
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance6.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rodopa Smolyan

D
Neftochimic Burgas0–0Rodopa Smolyan31 Oct · away
Pick: Neftochimic Burgas 38% · missed
W
Rodopa Smolyan1–0Atletik Kuklen24 Oct · home
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 56% · hit
W
Rodopa Smolyan1–0Gigant Saedinenie21 Oct · home
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 48% · hit
L
Dimitrovgrad5–1Rodopa Smolyan17 Oct · away
Pick: Rodopa Smolyan 41% · missed
D
Rodopa Smolyan1–1Nesebar4 Oct · home
Pick: Nesebar 46% · missed

Botev Plovdiv II

L
Maritsa Plovdiv2–1Botev Plovdiv II24 Oct · away
Pick: Maritsa Plovdiv 60% · hit
L
Botev Plovdiv II0–2Yambol 191521 Oct · home
Pick: Yambol 1915 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rodopa Smolyan and Botev Plovdiv II meet in Third League - Southeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Septemvri, Smolyan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rodopa Smolyan win 61.9%, draw 17.7%, Botev Plovdiv II win 20.4%. The pick is Rodopa Smolyan win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.0%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.